Deacons have work to do despite limited depth
Ending the Charleston Classic with an overtime loss to LSU made Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes zero in on two stats with the same number.
The Deacons had 18 turnovers and allowed 18 offensive rebounds.
“You can say, ‘Well they fought hard,’ but I’m not here for that,” Forbes said after Wake’s overtime loss to LSU last weekend. “Obviously we don’t have a lot of depth and we got tired. Those guys played heavy minutes but they have to take care of the ball.”
That marked Wake’s third loss in the last four games. This is the first time since 2017 that Wake Forest has a losing record through the first five games of a season.
On the issue of depth: Last season, Tyree Appleby played 90.8% of Wake’s minutes, 18th in the country (per KenPom). He was the first Deacon to rank in the top 100 nationally in that category since Brandon Childress in the 2018-19 season.
Cameron Hildreth (88.3%), Hunter Sallis (87.8%) and Andrew Carr (87.3%) all rank in the top 100 this season.
It’s been a tough slate; clearly Forbes isn’t interested in using excuses.
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Here’s what to know ahead of Friday’s game:
Time: 1 p.m.
Location: Joel Coliseum.
TV: ACC Network Extra.
Announcers: Evan Lepler (play-by-play) and Stan Lewter (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 3-0; Wake Forest won 95-59 in 2021.
Records: Charleston Southern 2-3; Wake Forest 2-3.
Stat to watch: 25.2% | 14.2%.
The first number is Charleston Southern’s turnover rate, which is 358th in the country (of 362 teams); the second is Wake’s defensive turnover rate, which is 320th (both via KenPom).
If ever there is a game for the Deacons to turn up the defensive pressure, this seems like it’ll be it.
In the Buccaneers’ only game against a power conference, N.C. State turned them over 22 times. Nine of 10 players who took the court that night committed at least one turnover.
The Deacons haven’t forced more than 11 turnovers in any game. While that hasn’t been a staple of Forbes’ teams in Winston-Salem — Wake’s defensive turnover rate has been 17.3, 17.6 and 17.9 in the past three years — his ETSU teams ranked in the top 60 in each of his last four seasons there.
Buccaneer to watch: Guard RJ Johnson (No. 22).
Charleston Southern’s leading scorer at 17.2 points per game, Johnson is a 6-1, 185-pounder who’s in his second season with the Buccaneers after two years at Holy Cross.
The Matthews, N.C., native is a high-volume shooter who’s also had high assist numbers throughout his career. So far this season, those shots have been falling—he’s 29-for-50 from the field, has made 8 of 16 3-pointers, and is 20-for-21 at the free-throw line.
(this is where you also point out Charleston Southern’s two wins have come against non-Division I members.)
Johnson has two seasons of eligibility remaining (not including this one) and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s still at Charleston Southern past this year.
Deacon to watch: Guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).
Sallis set what was then a career-high with 19 points against Elon in Wake’s opener, and then the third-year guard bettered it twice in Charleston with 20 points against Utah and 24 against Towson.
Now Sallis comes back to the Joel after a 2½-week hiatus. He’s the Deacons’ leading scorer, at 19.6 points per game, and has made as many 3-pointers in the first five games of the season as he did across two years at Gonzaga (15).
What’s on deck: Wake Forest plays host to Florida on Wednesday night in the ACC-SEC Challenge, and then has a week off before playing Rutgers on Dec. 6.
This feels like a get-right game for the Deacons, who have lost three of their last four.
Charleston Southern plays its next two games against in-state rivals in The Citadel (Nov. 28) and South Carolina State (Dec. 2).
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 83-62.
Deacons Illustrated prognosis: This should be straightforward.
Wake Forest is better in a lot of ways and should roll in this one. It’ll feel like a loss if the Deacons have game pressure down the stretch, but that seems unlikely.
This is the game that you build some momentum heading into the last two big non-conference games.