Wake Forest baseball draft primer
Deacons stand to see several high-profile players next week, but there’s a chance a few of them could be back
The bill was going to come due at some point.
Wake Forest’s baseball team returned most of its production from a team that made the NCAA tournament in 2022, sprinkled in some talented transfers, and made history with a trip to the Men’s College World Series last month.
The Deacons’ season ended a win away from playing a best-of-3 series for a national championship.
You don’t win 95 games over two seasons without talented players, and those talented players are bound to leave college eventually.
That’ll happen for some Deacons when the MLB draft begins this weekend. The first two rounds are Sunday night, starting at 7 p.m.; rounds 3-10 are Monday, and rounds 11-20 are Tuesday, with those picks starting at 2 p.m. each day.
Wake’s highest draft pick last year was Eric Adler, a sixth-round pick of the White Sox. The only position players taken were in rounds 15 and 20, as shortstop Michael Turconi and catcher Brendan Tinsman came off of the board, respectively.
You can bank on the Deacons having more than three players selected this season.
Last year’s draft also saw the Deacons lose two incoming recruits, both of them right-handed pitchers. Gary Gill-Hill signed with the Rays after being drafted in the sixth round, and Isaiah Lowe signed with the Padres as an 11th-round selection. That marked the fifth straight draft Wake Forest lost at least one incoming recruit to the draft.
Unlike basketball and football, drafted players can return to college if they go unsigned. July is a month in which programs slow down after the grind of a season that begins in mid-February, but it’s also a month in which next season’s roster takes form.
So the breakdown is as follows:
- Who is gone? These are surefire, would-be-absolutely-shocking if they’re at Wake Forest next season types.
- Who is probably gone? These are players who are likely starting their pro careers this summer, but who also have options open to playing for Wake Forest in 2024.
- Who could be at Wake Forest? These are the ones to have a close eye on both during the draft and in the following days, as their decisions could amount to coin flips.
A reminder on MLB draft eligibility: Players who have spent at least three seasons in college are eligible, as are second-year players who turn 21 years old within 45 days of the draft. High school graduates are also eligible, and there’s no formal process of declaring whether a player is in the draft or not.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the MLB draft, which begins Sunday:
Who is gone?
Rhett Lowder
Right-handed pitcher | Junior | Two-time ACC pitcher of the year.
Brock Wilken
Third baseman | Junior | All-time ACC home runs leader (71).
Seth Keener
Right-handed pitcher | Junior | Versatility was key for Wake’s pitching staff, as he started and pitched out of bullpen.
Camden Minacci
Right-handed closer | Junior | 19 saves in last two seasons, along with 105 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings.
Teddy McGraw
Right-handed pitcher | Junior | Didn’t pitch this season because of season-ending surgery; was slated to be Wake’s No. 2 starter behind Lowder.
Breakdown: You’ll hear Lowder and Wilken’s names on the first night of the draft … and possibly a few others.
Kyle Sleeth was the No. 3 pick in 2003 as the highest drafted Deacon ever. Lowder might not go quite that high, but seems guaranteed to be the second-highest drafted Deacon ever, ahead of Matt Antonelli (No. 17 in 2006).
“I think somewhere five-through-nine is where you’re going to hear his name called,” Wake Forest coach Tom Walter told Deacons Illustrated this week.
Wilken is slotted for the back half of the first round or as a competitive balance round pick (here are links to the draft order and an explainer of bonus pools and slot values).
Keener, Minacci and McGraw are likely second- or third-round picks. It’s worth noting that McGraw’s options are limited; he underwent Tommy John surgery in high school and rehab for the surgery this spring likely means he won’t be able to pitch next season.
Who is probably gone?
Sean Sullivan
Left-handed starter | Sophomore | Transfer from Northwestern became weekend starter and had 111 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings.
Bennett Lee
Catcher | Junior | Transfer from Tulane who both solidified Wake’s defense and hit .303, with a .435 OBP.
Justin Johnson
Infielder | Fifth-year junior | Transfer from Lafayette quickly established himself as starter at second base and as middle-of-the-order bat.
Breakdown: This is where things start to get interesting — and a little less concrete.
Sullivan is a draft-eligible sophomore who, along with Lowder, is an example of what Wake’s pitching lab and the developmental staff within it can do for a prospect’s future.
He’s got some leverage, though.
“I do think Sullivan goes somewhere in the second round, and we lose him,” Walter said. “It’s a little murkier with Sullivan because I think if he falls to the third round, we could get him back.
“I do think we’re highly likely to lose him. … But I feel like if he slips past the second round, you know, somebody could overpay him in the third round and we would lose him. But I do think there’s maybe a 15% chance we get him back.”
Here’s a snapshot pertaining to Lee’s defense: Wake Forest allowed 83 “free-90s” in the form of a wild pitch or passed ball in 2022. That number was down to 49 this season, despite playing five more games.
It’s important to note that Johnson has been in college for five years as much as it’s important to note how valuable he was in the middle of Wake’s lineup. If he’s drafted, it seems certain Wake Forest will lose him.
If he’s undrafted, though, the door is open for him to return.
“I think he and (reliever) Cole Roland are in a similar situation where if somebody drafts them, they’re going to sign,” Walter said. “But also in a situation where if not, they would both love to be back.”
Who could be at Wake Forest?
Tommy Hawke
Outfielder | Sophomore | Has patrolled centerfield and hit leadoff for most of the last two seasons, with a combined average of .362 and OBP of .474.
Pierce Bennett
Outfielder | Fourth-year junior | High contact rate and versatile, having played corner OF spots and second base at Wake Forest.
The freshmen:
LHP Haiden Leffew (Kannapolis), LHP/OF Cameron Nelson (Baltimore), OF Javar Williams (Dartmouth, Mass.), RHP Blake Morningstar (New Albany, Penn.).
Breakdown:
Here’s where we get into some coin flips.
Wake’s lineup doesn’t have many defined options beyond Nick Kurtz and Marek Houston (plus Seaver King), but returns of Hawke and/or Bennett would provide stability and familiarity — if the draft and subsequent negotiating breaks favorably.
“Tommy Hawke would definitely get $100,000 or $150,000. The question is, ‘Is he going to get enough to buy him out as a sophomore?’” Walter said. “I just don’t know.”
Walter said he feels that if Hawke is drafted in the first five rounds, he’s going to sign. The hypotheticals of a return are launched if he lasts into the sixth round. It doesn’t hurt Wake’s chances of Hawke returning that the Deacons have a commitment from his brother, Austin Hawke, who left UNC’s program after one season.
Bennett has an extra season of eligibility because his freshman season was cut short in 2020 by COVID-19.
“Pre-COVID, Pierce would’ve been a no-brainer (to sign with a pro team),” Walter said. “But there’s just not as many minor league spots now. So it’s just a little more of a question mark for Pierce.”
Question marks also come in the form of recruits.
The four incoming players listed above are the ones who could draw draft interest, per Walter. He’s not going into the draft expecting to lose any of them — with an obvious caveat.
“I think we’re fine on all four of those guys,” Walter said. “As the saying goes, it only takes one team to run a good number on the board and we lose them.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen.”