Which potential wins would mean the most to the Deacons this season?
They’re all big games.
You’ve got to take them one game at a time.
The next game is the biggest game simply because it’s the next game, no matter the opponent or circumstances.
Now that we’ve got the clichés out of the way, we can have a rational conversation.
Some games are bigger than others. Coaches occasionally admit it, players feel it and you know it. Football seasons have an ebb and flow and the only thing equal about each game is that it either counts as one tick in the win column or in the loss column.
Here, we’ll dive into which games mean the most to Wake Forest in the upcoming season.
As a schedule reminder: This is one of those weird calendar years in which there are 14 weekends starting with Labor Day and ending with Thanksgiving. That’s why, for the first time since 2019, there are two off weeks on the schedule instead of one (and it’s going to be the case again next year).
Here are the five most important games for Wake Forest to win this season:
1. vs. Ole Miss
Date: Sept. 14.
Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.
Series record; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 2-0; Wake Forest won 30-28 in 2008.
Week before; week after: vs. Virginia; off.
Overview: This year’s early season visit to Winston-Salem by an SEC team has a different vibe than Vanderbilt’s trip last year.
Here’s hoping this one doesn’t have a two-hour delay after five snaps.
Lane Kiffin will likely bring a top-10 team into town. Ole Miss is coming off an 11-win season, returns its quarterback who accounted for about 3,700 total yards and 31 touchdowns (Jaxson Dart), and is expected to be a contender for the SEC crown.
As important as it is/will be to remember this game means nothing in the ACC standings, it’s the most intriguing game on Wake’s schedule. The Deacons play a bona fide SEC power and have a chance — however slim it might appear on paper — to score what would probably be the biggest upset of the first three weeks in college football.
A win would …: Mean that Wake Forest is a contender for the College Football Playoff.
Well, maybe not to that extreme.
But it would force a hasty reevaluation of Wake’s ceiling. Going with the assumption that if Wake Forest is good enough to win this game, it’s already won the previous game against Virginia and is off to a 3-0 start — that would send the Deacons into their first off week with a top 25 ranking and dreams of contending atop the ACC.
It’d also snap the ignominious streak of 60 straight losses to top-10 teams — assuming Ole Miss has beaten Furman and Middle Tennessee and is in the top 10. Wake’s last win over a top-10 team was a 19-6 win at Tennessee in 1946.
2. at N.C. State
Date: Oct. 5.
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh.
Series record; last meeting: N.C. State leads 69-42-6; N.C. State won 26-6 last season.
Week before; week after: vs. Louisiana; vs. Clemson.
Overview: If you wanted to make an argument for this game or either of the next two as Wake’s most important game, even over the Ole Miss matchup, you’d be able to make a compelling case.
We’re going with N.C. State in this spot because the Wolfpack is the in-state rival with the highest expectations.
N.C. State’s rollercoaster of a season last year ended with nine wins. The Wolfpack is a dark horse to compete for a berth in the ACC title game. Its offense has been supplemented by transfers, a lot of them coming from nearby programs; quarterback Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina), running back Jordan Waters (Duke) and wide receiver Wesley Grimes (Wake Forest) should all make an impact around KC Concepcion, last year’s ACC rookie of the year.
A win would …: Wrest this long-running rivalry’s bragging rights back to the Deacons.
As last season unraveled, there were several revealing quotes from coach Dave Clawson. Those that followed the throttling at the hands of the Wolfpack, a team the Deacons beat each year from 2017-19 and again in 2021 to seize control of the ACC’s Atlantic Division, stand out the most some 250ish days later.
“I want to apologize to our fanbase, our students. That was just an awful, awful performance,” Clawson said back in November. “I’ve gotta do some soul searching and look at our team. This is two games in a row, two programs, Florida State and N.C. State, that we’ve had a lot of success against in the last three, four, five, six years — we’re not even competitive against those two programs.”
FSU isn’t on Wake’s schedule to provide a measuring stick of getting back to those days; N.C. State is.
3. at UNC
Date: Nov. 16.
Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill.
Series record; last meeting: UNC leads 72-36-2; UNC won 36-34 in 2022.
Week before; week after: vs. California; at Miami.
Overview: For a sense of how long ago five years ago can be in college football, we turn to Wake’s series against UNC.
Five years ago, the Deacons throttled UNC in the first half with Jamie Newman and Sage Surratt leading the way against a freshman, Sam Howell, who was briefly benched. The Tar Heels rallied and Wake Forest held on for a 24-18 win.
Since then, the Deacons lost a couple of basketball-score games in Chapel Hill — 59-53 in 2020 and 58-55 in 2021 — best summarized by blown three-score leads, and lost 36-34 in the last meeting.
Going by frequency and how often they’re recruiting the same players, this is probably the lesser rivalry of Wake’s on Tobacco Road. Under the newest scheduling format, Wake Forest plays N.C. State and Duke every season through 2030; the Deacons and Tar Heels will only meet four times.
But given three losses by a combined 11 points in the last three meetings and the general disdain for UNC on fans’ behalf, this game looms large on the back one-forth of the schedule.
A win would …: Exorcise some demons of the past trips to Chapel Hill, as explained above.
But maybe the most important part of a potential win here would be what it does for Wake’s November.
If Wake Forest is good enough to win at UNC in its 10th game of the season, it’s a safe bet the Deacons have already racked up at least five wins and this would either clinch bowl eligibility or elevate the program’s status for a bowl selection.
4. vs. Duke
Date: Nov. 30.
Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.
Series record; last meeting: Duke leads 60-41-2; Duke won 24-21 last season.
Week before; week after: at Miami; ACC championship(?)/end of regular season.
Overview: It’s a little bit of the same story as the recent history with N.C. State.
Wake Forest won four of five games against Duke from 2016-21, including three straight from 2018-21. But former Wake Forest defensive coordinator Mike Elko went 2-0 against Clawson in the past two seasons, both games decided by a field goal.
Exit Elko, enter Manny Diaz as Duke’s coach — and the Deacons’ aim will be to reenter the upper hand in this Tobacco Road rivalry between the private schools.
Both teams are expected to be around .500, per DraftKings odds, so there’s a chance this regular-season finale either determines which team goes to a bowl game or determines which team has a tiebreaker in the bowl selection process.
A win would …: Give Wake Forest some momentum heading into what’s become the busiest month of the calendar.
December has become a clusterf— on the calendar. It’s where most bowl games fall, now it’s where the first round of the College Football Playoff falls (Dec. 20 and 21), it’s where National Signing Day lands, and it’s when thousands of players enter the transfer portal.
Beating a rival on the last day of the previous month would obviously establish momentum going into a potential bowl game. But when we arrive at this point of the schedule, as long as there isn’t a coaching search underway or a league championship to be played for, the focus is going to be more about what next season’s roster looks like than it is about the result of the 12th game.
Hence, the momentum to be won with this game would be nice to have.
5. vs. California
Date: Nov. 8 (Friday).
Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.
Series record; last meeting: First meeting; n/a.
Week before; week after: off; at UNC.
Overview: Sure, playing Clemson is a big deal. The Virginia game in Week 2 is a big one because it’s the ACC opener and comes earlier than usual. Beating Louisiana and winning at Connecticut might wind up the difference between a bowl game and staying home in December.
But let’s shine some light on an ACC newcomer.
Wake Forest plays two of the league’s three incoming teams, heading to Stanford and playing host to Cal in back-to-back games with an off date in between. The Deacons will have to wait until next year to play SMU.
The matchup against Cal lands on this list for a few reasons — one, it’s a home game, two, it’s a Friday night with a larger stage and three, it’s the first game of November, what’s become a make-or-break month for Wake’s seasons.
A win would …: Kick off Wake’s November with a solid win.
It’s tough to know how good (or bad) Cal will be right now and it’s harder to forecast what they’ll look like in the second weekend of November.
What we do know, though, is Wake Forest will likely enter a crucial four-game stretch to end the season. Three of the four are on this list and the one that isn’t is Miami, which could be trending toward competing near the top of the league.
Starting this four-game span with a Friday night win would be a nice step toward a strong finish.
Oh, and don’t forget the matter of winning a game following an off week. As we discuss every season, and as we’ll discuss ad nauseam this year with two off weeks, teams coming out of off weeks don’t win nearly as often as conventional wisdom would indicate.