Published Nov 18, 2024
Preview: Western Carolina at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons come off first loss with pair of non-conference home games before heading back onto road

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You only get so many shots at a get-right game — and you get fewer of them with a 20-game league schedule.

The college basketball season is two weeks old and Wake Forest has played almost half of its non-conference slate. The Deacons play two more home games this week — Tuesday night against Western Carolina and Saturday against Detroit Mercy — before going to the ESPN Events Invitational next week.

Wake’s December calendar has a game at Texas A&M, the ACC opener against Boston College, and games at Clemson and Syracuse, with one more mid-major in the mix, a home game against James Madison (Dec. 17).

It sets up this week’s pair of games as, it seems, Wake’s final couple of shots to roll up the type of comfortable non-conference wins that analytics sites enjoy. The Deacons’ three shots at doing that so far have missed the mark; there were slogs of wins against Coppin State and North Carolina A&T, plus last week’s comeback win against USC Upstate.

Here’s what to know ahead of Tuesday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Roy Philpott (play-by-play) and Malcolm Huckaby (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 2-0; Wake Forest won 87-75 in Nov. 2021, getting 32 points from Alondes Williams and 24 from Daivien Williamson.

Records: Western Carolina 2-1; Wake Forest 4-1.

Stat to watch: 18.

Simple one here: That’s the number of turnovers Wake Forest committed at Xavier on Saturday.

Of little saving grace, it wasn’t even the most turnovers the Deacons have committed in their first five games. They gave it away 19 times in the second game, against N.C. A&T.

But those 19 turnovers came in an up-and-down game with 81 possessions; there were only 66 possessions on Saturday between Wake Forest and Xavier.

In case it’s not obvious: A team already struggling to shoot the ball can’t afford for 27.3% of its possessions to end without even getting a shot attempt.

The one time Western Carolina played a Division I opponent this season — the Catamounts have wins over Bob Jones and Truett McConnell — it forced Queens into 14 turnovers (17.9% turnover rate, per KenPom).

Matchup to watch: Wake Forest vs. its shooting woes.

Maybe the Deacons will shoot around 26.8% — their current percentage on 3-pointers — for the whole season.

Wake Forest has never shot worse than 34% in any of Forbes’ first four seasons; the worst 3-point percentage in Danny Manning’s six seasons was 30.8% in 2018-19; under Jeff Bzdelik, the Deacons shot under 33% just once (32.9% in 2013-14).

Want more history? Wake’s 3-point percentage has never been under 30% for an entire season. The 3-point line was introduced to college basketball for the 1986-87 season.

So, again: Maybe the Deacons are, in fact, a team that’s only going to make one of every four 3-pointers (roughly).

Historical data suggests that’s not going to happen, though.

Catamount to watch: Guard Ice Emery (No. 8).

His real name is Chevalier Emery but come on, what a cool name. And Western Carolina’s website has him listed as “Ice.”

Coming off the bench was apparently the best way forward for Emery. He started the first two games, scoring eight and nine points against Bob Jones and Queens, respectively, and shooting a combined 6-for-21 (2-for-9 on 3-pointers).

Against Truett McConnell on Wednesday night, he scored 24 points, making 9 of 16 shots (5 of 11 3-pointers). All of that came in 24 minutes, and he added four rebounds and three assists.

Emery is a junior, on his third school in three years. He played limited minutes for Merrimack in the 2022-23 season, for a team that won the Northeast Conference tournament, and spent last season at Dodge City Community College (Kansas), where he averaged 17.4 points per game and shot over 40% on 3s.

Deacon to watch: Wing Juke Harris (No. 2).

He’s listed here in part because it didn’t feel right to have Cameron Hildreth here in back-to-back games.

But Wake’s lone freshman in the rotation is also here because he had a non-factor 11 minutes at Xavier, the worst game of his fledgling career, and we’ll have to see how he bounces back.

Harris missed the only shot he took at Xavier (a 3-pointer), missed a pair of free throws and committed two fouls.

On a team that starts four players in their fourth seasons of college basketball, maybe it’s unfair to expect so much of a freshman. But Harris has shown early that he has a legitimate role for the Deacons; he has to consistently play it.

What’s on deck: The games keep coming for the Deacons.

Wake Forest plays Detroit Mercy on Saturday afternoon, which will be Wake’s seventh game in the first 20 days of the season. The Deacons are about a 20-point favorite on KenPom for that one.

Western Carolina’s next game is in a week and also against an ACC team; the Catamounts are headed to Tallahassee for a game against Florida State.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 80-63.

What a Wake Forest loss looks like: Does it even have to be said that Wake’s shooting woes will have persisted for the Deacons to lose this game?

Well, it’s been said now.

The turnover issues would have to continue, too. If that number climbs to 15 and higher, Wake Forest opens itself up for a potential loss in this one.

Along the lines of what Western Carolina has to do to win the game … man, they’re a tough evaluation. In the only game against a Division I team, the Catamounts scored 0.69 points per possession; in the two blowouts of schools that sound more like 19th century lawyers, the Catamounts scored 1.28 and 1.29 ppp.

So, if the Deacons play defense akin to Bob Jones and Truett McConnell, the Catamounts could light them up.

What a Wake Forest win looks like: Ball control, avoiding turnovers, playing smart would be the driving factors, here.

The Deacons stifling Western Carolina in the same way Queens did — we know the Deacons are capable on the defensive end, based on the first four games — would lead to a pretty comfortable win, even if Wake’s offense remains punchless.

Going deeper, a win for Wake Forest that would go beyond the final score would be gaining some offensive confidence. That could come from effective and efficient half-court offense, fast-break runouts, a barrage of 3-pointers; anything to get the Deacons’ collective juices flowing as a dangerous offensive team.