Backs against the wall, Deacons look for upset win against highest-ranked ACC team; Plus a preview of Saturday’s WF-Miami game
Momentum in football — be it in a game or in a season — can be fickle and disappear as quickly as it’s created.
Maybe Wake Forest’s football team already knew that. But the Deacons have certainly learned that lesson now.
Too many times this season during games, Wake Forest has suffered a self-inflicted wound when it appeared to be taking control of a game. That has happened in each of the last two games, losses to California and at North Carolina — which has sapped the momentum of Wake’s season, having won two road games before the Nov. 2 off date and now fallen back to two games under .500.
And now, with two games left in the season and needing to win both, is there time to fix the mistakes?
“I mean, it’s do or die,” senior receiver Taylor Morin said when asked that question this week. “Our backs (are) against the wall and if we don’t get it right now, we’re not going to this season.
“That’s just the reality of it, to be blunt.”
Bluntness can be a good thing.
To continue on that theme, Wake Forest plays its toughest game of the season with Saturday’s game at Miami. The Hurricanes are No. 11 in the College Football Playoff ranking and have the inside track to a top-four seed in the 12-team playoff.
But they’ve also spent their margin for error and have some extenuating motivation to beat the Deacons. Miami lost its last game, at Georgia Tech two weeks ago, and can’t afford another loss if it wants to reach the ACC championship game. It’s also Senior Day for the Hurricanes.
“Miami is a really good football team,” coach Dave Clawson said. “I firmly believe that our guys will prepare well and … continue to play hard. The key is that we have to execute for 60 minutes.”
Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:
Time: 12 p.m.
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami.
TV: ESPN.
Announcers: Mark Jones (play-by-play), Roddy Jones (analyst), Quint Kessenich (sidelines).
Radio link: Listen to the crew that knows Wake Forest best.
Forecast: Sunny, high-60s, winds around 10 mph at kickoff; low-70s, still sunny, winds around 8 mph by game’s end.
Series; last meeting: Miami leads 8-3 and has won seven straight meetings, dating back to 1969; Miami won 24-21 in 2013.
Records: Wake Forest 4-6, 2-4 ACC; Miami 9-1, 5-1.
Stat to watch: 56.5%.
That’s Miami’s third-down conversion rate and it’s the best in the country.
The Hurricanes have a quarterback in Cam Ward who’s perhaps the best in the country at extending plays. So, even on third downs that pressure gets to him, he can break the pocket and buy himself time to find a receiver or run for a first down.
And when the Hurricanes run on third downs, they’re giving the ball to either Damien Martinez (6-foot, 232) or Mark Fletcher Jr. (6-2, 225). Both are power runners adept at picking up an extra 2-3 yards after you think they’re bottled up.
The inverse of this stat? Wake’s defense allows third downs at a clip of 42.3%, which is 94th in the country.
Quote of the week: “Any time it seems like we’re getting momentum, we just end up shooting ourselves in the foot. Whether that’s costly turnovers, penalties in the red zone, whatever that might be. It’s really frustrating because it’s really hard to get that momentum and a lot of games we’ve started slow, so once we do start to capture that momentum, to shoot ourselves in the foot is just killing us.” – Morin
Opposing offensive player to watch: Slot receiver Xavier Restrepo (No. 7).
Think of all the star receivers Miami has had over the years — Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss to get you started — and then realize Restrepo has become Miami’s all-time leader in catches and receiving yards.
The 5-10, 198-pounder passed Wayne and Moss for the yardage record with a 146-yard game against Duke earlier this month. And then passed Mike Harley for the receptions record in Miami’s next game, which was the Hurricanes’ loss to Georgia Tech.
Restrepo is 66 yards away from his second 1,000-yard season. He has had five 100-yard games this season, three of them in Miami’s last five games. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s above 50% on contested catches (7-for-12) and in spite of his size and playing out of the slot, his average depth of target (12.1 yards) is the highest of any Miami receiver.
Opposing defensive player to watch: Defensive end Tyler Baron (No. 9).
Miami wanted to build a winner in an offseason and did so through the portal, with Baron as one of the top additions on the defensive side of the ball.
Baron is from Knoxville, Tenn., and played the last four seasons for the Vols. He played between 430-445 snaps in each of the last three seasons, racking up 101 tackles, 27 TFLs and 13½ sacks.
And left for Miami.
The 6-5, 260-pounder leads the Hurricanes with 38 QB pressures (PFF) and is third on the team with 21 run-stops. He’s only had one game — against Duke — without multiple pressures and his pass-rush grade on PFF has been over 60.0 in nine of Miami’s 10 games.
Young Deacon to watch: Slot receiver Deuce Alexander (No. 81).
The Deuce is due to be loose again.
Wake’s redshirt freshman receiver has probably had the worst two games of his season in the Deacons’ last two. His three-catch, 30-yard game against California came on seven targets, making it the first time all season that he caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way (which comes with a disclaimer that the pass has to be accurate, obviously).
And then Alexander only had one catch for 4 yards against UNC last weekend.
He’s too talented a receiver and too important for Wake’s offense to have too many games like these piled up.
What a Wake Forest loss looks like: Hmm … an offense as dangerous and explosive as Miami’s against a defense that’s been gouged through the air by lesser quarterbacks and receivers?
Not exactly a recipe for success.
Miami will try to get Ward back in the Heisman conversation, given the Hurricanes lost their last game and were off last week — hence, giving more oxygen to the cases for Colorado’s Travis Hunter and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.
Having Ward go out on Senior Day and light up the scoreboard with something like 400 yards and five touchdowns would help his Heisman case and stick a nail in the coffin of Wake’s season.
What a Wake Forest win looks like: The first requirement is a simple one — the Deacons have to quell this trend of committing penalties and turnovers when they’re in the process of accruing momentum.
If or when Wake Forest can do that, this might become a closer game than most expect.
Miami blew out four non-conference opponents and otherwise has played six relatively close games. There were wild, one-score wins over Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville, a slog of a win against Florida State, and a 22-point win over Duke in which Miami trailed by 11 in the second half. And then the loss at Georgia Tech.
Wake’s offense should be able to move the ball and score against a Miami defense that’s given up an average of 31.7 points to ACC foes.