Deacons’ areas to improve, sustain are clear one game into their season
This one seems about as straightforward as it can get for Wake Forest.
The Deacons’ first game was characterized by an outstanding defensive effort and an off night, particularly in the second half, on the offensive end of the court.
“We had nine consecutive stops to start the game, 13 kills for the game, and we turned them over 20 times,” coach Steve Forbes said on Monday night, “but our offense was so abysmal it put so much pressure on our defense.”
Wake’s points per possession, per KenPom, was 0.89 in Monday night’s 64-49 win over Coppin State. For a comparison:
- In 35 games last season, Wake’s points per possession was under 0.9 in two games.
- In 33 games two seasons ago, Wake’s ppp was under 0.9 in three games.
- In 35 games three seasons ago, Wake’s ppp was under 0.9 in three games.
A bad offensive start? Sure.
Something that signals the whole season is going to go this way? Hardly.
“Anyone can read a stat sheet and see we’re 9-for-37 from three and 11-for-23 from the line. It’s going to be really hard to win big games when you’re shooting that poorly,” Forbes said. “Am I panicking? No. I know what they can do, but they have to do it.
“We did have 14 assists on 22 baskets, so that’s encouraging, but we need more than 22 baskets. I know everyone is used to us getting 90, 100 points and flying up and down, and I still think this team is very capable of that, we just had a really poor night shooting.”
Here’s what to know ahead of Thursday night’s game:
Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Joel Coliseum.
TV: ACC Network Extra.
Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 7-0; WF won 87-63 in Nov. 2021, with Alondes Williams scoring 19 points on 7-for-9 shooting.
Records: N.C. A&T 1-0; WF 1-0.
Stat to watch: 9-for-37.
Making nine 3-pointers in a game is decent; taking 37 of them to hit that number is, well, not so great.
That was Wake’s offensive plight against Coppin State. It wasn’t the worst 3-point percentage of Forbes’ tenure in Winston-Salem; it was the worst percentage in a game Wake Forest took at least 30 3-pointers, though (out of 21 such games).
One game hardly spells doom for what is a perceived strength of this team. Hunter Sallis, Parker Friedrichsen and Davin Cosby Jr. were all between 34-41% 3-point shooters last season and combined to go 2-for-18 against the Eagles.
Chances are low that the Deacons’ long-range percentages remain low.
Matchup to watch: N.C. A&T guard Jahnathan Lamothe (No. 5) vs. Wake Forest guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).
There is a lot of guesswork on the matchup here, as N.C. A&T started four players at 6-4 or shorter in its season opener. But the prediction here is that Lamothe, a transfer from Maryland, and Sallis wind up guarding each other a fair amount — either to start possessions or in switches.
Lamothe is a 6-4, 192-pound guard who only played in 16 games at Maryland last season, with 12 points (10 came in one game, against Alcorn State). He took to his new surroundings well in his debut for the Aggies, scoring 27 on Monday night, hitting 6 of 11 3-pointers, and adding six rebounds and four assists.
It figures Lamothe, with size and athleticism to at least be recruited out of high school by a Big Ten program, would be the Aggies’ preferred defender against Sallis.
Just like it figures Wake Forest would assign Sallis to Lamothe, at least in spots, to mitigate him having the same type of performance that he had Monday night.
Aggie to watch: Center Will Felton (No. 34).
Listed as a redshirt sophomore on N.C. A&T’s website, Felton made his collegiate debut Monday night.
The 6-9, 260-pounder signed with Arizona State but didn't play for the Sun Devils in his one season at ASU. He transferred to N.C. A&T and missed the last two seasons because of injuries. The Raleigh native had a first collegiate game — albeit against a non-Division I team — worth remembering.
Felton had a double-double in the first half against Cheyney University and finished with 17 points and 12 rebounds. He didn’t miss a shot from the field (6-for-6) and six of his rebounds were on the offensive end.
He started and was the only Aggies starter taller than 6-4.
Deacon to watch: Forward Omaha Biliew (No. 0).
Speaking of strong debuts.
Wake’s next McDonald’s All-America reclamation project played 15 minutes against Coppin State and filled in the stat sheet. Biliew had 11 points, four rebounds, three steals, one block and one assist. He made 2 of 3 3-pointers, one of the bright spots in long-range shooting for the Deacons — in limited action for Iowa State last season, he missed all three of his 3s.
It is, to point out the painfully obvious, one game into the season. Biliew might not put up these numbers every game and he’s likely to experience some growing pains.
But one game into his Deacons career, Biliew met or exceeded expectations as an ultra-talented player with a great motor and superior athleticism.
What’s on deck: It gets real in a hurry after this for the Deacons.
Wake Forest plays Michigan in Greensboro on Sunday afternoon. It’s a marquee matchup to end the first week of college basketball; the first important non-conference test for the Deacons and the first big game at Michigan for new coach Dusty May. The Wolverines will not have played since Monday night’s 101-53 thrashing of Cleveland State in May’s debut.
This is the first of three road games in an 11-day span for N.C. A&T, with the next two requiring at George Washington (Nov. 12) and The Citadel (Nov. 17).
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 85-65.
What a Wake Forest loss looks like: However difficult it is to imagine Wake Forest being the same or worse on 3-point shots for a second straight game, that’s probably the first thing that’d need to happen for the Deacons to lose this game.
The second must-happen of a loss would be something close to the 11-for-23 free-throw clip from Monday night.
What a Wake Forest win looks like: Well, there’s a lot of variance because the Deacons are expected to win by a lot.
A comfortable Wake Forest win would involve improved offense from Monday night’s opener and the same defensive effort. For as much has been made about how pedestrian Wake’s offense was, the way the Deacons played defense at least introduces the idea that this team can shut down opponents in ways that have been rare over the last several seasons at Wake Forest.