Published Jan 27, 2023
Preview: N.C. State at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons can stop the bleeding — namely, the 3s — with key matchup against Wolfpack

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It was a simple question that deserved a simple answer.

What does Wake Forest need to do in response to losing back-to-back games?

“We’ve gotta score one more point than N.C. State,” coach Steve Forbes said after Wednesday night’s loss at Pittsburgh.

Asked. Answered. Onward.

The Deacons are moving forward with another key matchup. N.C. State is surging, having won five of its last six games, and has the firepower to give Wake Forest more headaches on the Deacons’ defensive end.

It’s not enough to think the Deacons’ last two opponents just had uncanny shooting performances. Wake Forest, as Forbes noted, played a role in how many open 3s Pitt had.

Now it boils down to what lessons were learned and what fixes were made. Dwelling on losses leads to more losses; applying corrections is how losing streaks are ended.

This is the second time this season Wake Forest has lost back-to-back games, the other being December losses to Clemson and LSU. In 20 games this season and 35 last season, the Deacons have never lost three straight.

Avoiding that is a matter of moving forward instead of looking back on Saturday.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

Time: 1 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ACC Network.

Series; last meeting: N.C. State leads 146-108; Wake Forest won 101-76 in March last season, and swept the season series (winning 69-51 in Raleigh).

Records: N.C. State 16-5, 6-4 ACC; Wake Forest 14-7, 6-4.

Stat to watch: 33.9%.

That’s N.C. State’s 3-point percentage, which is 169th in the country.

There’s no overthinking this one.

Wake Forest has been shot down from beyond the arc in each of the last two games. Virginia made 15 3-pointers — the most the Cavaliers have made in a game over last two seasons — and then Pitt made 18 of them — the most the Panthers have made … ever.

Another way of putting it: Wake Forest has given up 157 points in the last two games. Ninety-nine have come on 3s, 30 on free throws and 28 on 2-pointers.

The Deacons had given up eight or nine 3-pointers in six of their previous seven games, and hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot over 40% for 10 straight games before last weekend’s loss to Virginia. It’s not like 3-point defense was the Deacons’ backbone; it’s also not like this has been a season-long issue.

The dam has broken in the last two games and it has to be fixed.

The Wolfpack has two main threats to know when it comes to perimeter shooting.

Terquavion Smith (60 of 181) and Casey Morsell (52 of 117) have made 64.4% of N.C. State’s 3s this season. Smith is a volume shooter who’s also become a decent all-around player as a sophomore guard; Morsell is in his second season after transferring from Virginia and has gone from making 35% of his 3s last season to 44.4% this season.

Matchup to watch, Part I: N.C. State wings Terquavion Smith (No. 0) and Casey Morsell (No. 14) vs. Wake’s perimeter defenders.

This is a continuation of the point made above.

The Wolfpack gets the majority of its outside shooting from two sources. Smith is coming off a rough 2-for-14 shooting performance against Notre Dame on Tuesday night; though that came three days after he was taken off UNC’s court on a stretcher after a scary crash to the floor.

Morsell is the more-efficient shooter. The 44.4% clip is the third-best rate in the ACC, and it’s the top one of players who have taken at least 60 3-pointers.

The task of keeping up with Smith and Morsell lands (at least initially) on the shoulders of Cameron Hildreth and Damari Monsanto — assuming the two former SEC players (named in the next categories) are matched up against each other.

You’ve got a bit of a redemption storyline for those two. Hildreth missed three crucial free throws down the stretch against Pitt, while Monsanto only played 13 minutes, sitting out a large portion of the second half with four fouls.

Matchup to watch, Part II: N.C. State point guard Jarkel Joiner (No. 1) vs. Wake Forest point guard Tyree Appleby (No. 1).

Two years at a mid-major, transferred and had to sit out the 2019-20 season, two years at an SEC program with marginal success, transferred to the ACC as a grad transfer for a sixth and final season, enjoying success as a point guard.

Oh, and they’re both wearing jersey No. 1.

Joiner and Appleby followed similar paths to reach Tobacco Road, and they’ve enjoyed similar success now that they’re here. Joiner went from scoring 13.2 points at Mississippi last season to 16.8 this season, which is sixth in the ACC; Appleby averaged 10.9 points at Florida last season and has bumped that up to 17.7 at Wake Forest, fourth in the ACC.

Appleby is coming off a 15-point, seven-assist performance against Pitt. He missed a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final seconds.

Joiner is coming off the better performance, having scored 28 points in N.C. State’s 85-82 win over Notre Dame on Tuesday night. That was Joiner’s third 20-point game of the month (others against Virginia Tech and Duke), and he’s had four other games this season with at least 26 points (Miami, Coppin State, Dayton and FIU were opponents).

Across the last two seasons in the SEC, Appleby’s Florida team won two of three meetings with Mississippi. Joiner didn’t play in the lone victory because of a back injury last year; in their most-recent meeting, Appleby had 10 points and 10 assists in Florida’s overtime win last February. That was Joiner’s first game after missing nearly one month, and he played 40 minutes with seven points.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 78-77.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: I don’t think you can have a must-win game in January. So no, I don’t think this is a must-win game.

We’re at the unofficial halfway point of the ACC season (most teams have either played nine or 10 of 20 games) and Wake Forest is in the thick of the league’s middle-third. Forbes has made it a point several times over the last few weeks to point out that as late as the season feels, Wake Forest had not (yet) reached the downhill portion of league play.

(Sidenote: There’s no middle ground of the schedule, is there? You’re either in “it’s too early” mode or “oh God, how are there only x-number of games left?!” mode. But I digress.)

A win here wouldn’t undo either of the past two defeats, especially in the wasteland that is the NCAA’s NET rankings.

What it would do is give the Deacons a course correction heading into a January-ending trip to Durham, and then into a February where we will see some must-win games.