Published Jan 19, 2024
Preview: Louisville at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons need to bounce back from concerning second half

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It was a second half so bad that Steve Forbes called it the worst half of basketball his Wake Forest team has played in the last three seasons.

It was bad enough to make you forget and/or ignore everything the Deacons did well for the first 20 minutes of the game, building a 10-point lead.

And it was three days ago.

Wake Forest moves forward having lost a road game it should’ve won, but moves forward nonetheless. It was the sixth out of 20 ACC games; the Deacons will have more opportunities to win conference road games that hold weight in the NET rankings and such.

One such opportunity isn’t Saturday, when the Deacons play host to Louisville at Joel Coliseum. The Cardinals are in last place in the ACC, and two days after this game, Wake Forest goes to Chapel Hill to play the first-place team.

That comes later; the moving forward part comes now.

“It’s not indicative of our players but it’s sad because we’re better than that,” Forbes said on Tuesday night. “To play offense like that in the second half, it’s just not good. Especially when you have a chance to go on the road and win a game, like we did.”

Proving the road part of that comes later; proving the rest of that sentiment true starts Saturday.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

Time: 12 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ESPNU.

Announcers: Anish Shroff (play-by-play) and Josh Pastner (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Louisville leads 9-4; Wake Forest won 80-72 at Louisville last season.

Records: Louisville 6-11, 1-5 ACC; Wake Forest 12-5, 4-2.

Stat to watch: 53.

We have to keep talking about this.

That’s how many combined turnovers Wake Forest has committed in the last three games. It was 20 against Florida State, 17 against Virginia and 16 against N.C. State.

“I think we just played into their hands, especially towards the end of the second half,” senior forward Andrew Carr said of the turnover issues at N.C. State. “We got sped up a little bit and played at their pace, didn’t slow it down and execute … as well as we would’ve liked.”

The mystifying part of it is turnovers weren’t an issue for this team until the last 10 days. Across the last seven games of the nine-game win streak, Wake Forest averaged 9.4 turnovers per game and never committed more than 10.

It’s a concerning trend, and it’s one that needs to be reversed for Wake’s offense to regain its footing.

Matchup to watch: Louisville center Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (No. 5) vs. Wake Forest center Efton Reid III (No. 4).

For all of his faults as a head coach, you know Danny Manning can work with big men and help their offensive games. And this year, the former Wake Forest coach and current Louisville associate head coach has molded Huntley-Hatfield into a decent ACC center.

The 6-10, 240-pounder is averaging 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. This is his second season at Louisville after spending one year at Tennessee, and he’s finally capitalizing on his potential — and it’s worth noting that he reclassified and moved up to join the Vols in 2021.

Huntley-Hatfield had a career-high 22 points in Louisville’s lone ACC win, at Miami. He made 9 of 13 shots, including a 3-pointer, and had nine rebounds, two blocks and two assists.

Wake Forest was in Huntley-Hatfield’s final five when he was transferring and had a visit arranged with the Deacons before he visited Louisville and committed.

The Deacons need Reid, their own iteration of a one-time 5-star recruit who’s reaching his potential in his third season on a college roster, to contain Huntley-Hatfield.

That means he’s got to cut down on the fouls.

Reid was on the court for 22 minutes against N.C. State on Tuesday night, fouling out with 3:15 left. The Deacons were plus-9 with him on the court and minus-16 with him on the bench. He’s committing 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom).

Cardinal to watch: Guard Skyy Clark (No. 55).

Louisville is in last place in the ACC but don’t let that make you think it’s devoid of talent.

Clark is a great example of that.

The sophomore guard was a 4-star in the Class of 2022 and spent a year and a half committed to Kentucky before signing with Illinois. He left the Illini after 13 games last season and landed at Louisville, where he’s the Cardinals’ leading scorer (14.3).

The 6-3, 205-pounder is going to get his shots and he got hot against UNC on Wednesday night, scoring 16 points and making 4 of 5 3-pointers. He’s taken double-digit shots in 13 of Louisville’s 17 games.

Deacon to watch: Guard Kevin Miller (No. 0).

As Miller goes, the Deacons go.

At least, that’s been the case lately.

Wake’s point guard got sped up in road losses at FSU and N.C. State in the last couple of weeks. He scored 21 points in each game, but also committed 11 combined turnovers. Five giveaways against FSU matched a season high, and then six against the Wolfpack became his season high.

The 6-foot, 175-pounder played a strong game against Virginia (14 points, seven assists, two turnovers) in between those and the hope should be that a return home puts him back on track in this game, too.

What’s on deck: It’s a low-high three-day swing for the Deacons.

Wake Forest plays last-place Louisville and then first-place UNC on Monday night. That game is in Chapel Hill and a prime opportunity for a marquee win at a venue where Wake Forest hasn’t won since 2010.

It doesn’t get much easier for Louisville, either. The Cardinals play host to Duke on Tuesday night.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 84-68.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: It’s hinted above and I want to make sure to spell it out now:

Louisville has several issues but talent isn’t one of them.

Last year’s Louisville team was an untalented trainwreck with misfit personnel. This is a team with plenty of issues, but the talent is there with Huntley-Hatfield, Clark and sophomore Mike James. Winning at Miami should be enough of a red flag to realize that, as should playing N.C. State and UNC tighter than most would’ve expected.

Because of that and the obvious of coming off a loss and facing UNC two days later, this isn’t a game Wake Forest can take lightly. Being aware that that’s an awful cliché, we’ll just throw in another: The Deacons can’t be caught looking ahead to Monday night’s trip to Chapel Hill.

I doubt that’s a valid concern, given Wake’s maturity level. The Deacons have won 10 straight home games and students are (finally) back on campus. In all likelihood, this is a comfortable win.

Just don’t be surprised if there are uncomfortable moments before reaching that destination.