Published Jul 18, 2023
5 most-important games to win for Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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There was a tweet over the weekend asking people to name their favorite quote from “The Wire.”

Impossible. You can’t name just one.

Here’s one that didn’t make the six that I tweeted, and it’s one that sets up today’s football preview list:

“Thin line between heaven and here.”

That’s Bubbles, a good-hearted addict, after Det. Jimmy McNulty takes him from a youth soccer game in the suburbs back into the hellscape of the city. It’s a juxtaposition the show doesn’t beat you over the head with, but drives home over the course of five seasons; you’re never too far from the other side of the tracks.

I promise, there’s a point here and we’re getting to it.

Wake Forest was 8-5 with a bowl win last year and that’s supposed to feel like a successful season. And yet, a three-win decrease from the previous year and a 1-3 record in close games leaves you feeling hollow.

Another part of that is visiting last season’s preview of the five most-important games for the Deacons. They were: Clemson, N.C. State, UNC, Louisville and Vanderbilt. They lost four of those, one in double overtime and another by two points.

It’s a thin line between having a good season and a great one in college football.

Here are the five most-important games for Wake Forest to win this season:

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1. at Clemson

Date: Oct. 7.

Location: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, S.C.

Last meeting; series: Clemson won 51-45 in double overtime in 2022; Clemson leads 70-17-1.

Overview: You’ll notice all five of these games come in October or November. Wake’s first four games aren’t exactly a cakewalk … but when your only ACC game is against a team whose last bowl game was in 2018 (Georgia Tech) and your biggest non-conference matchup is against a similarly dismal program (Vanderbilt), the focus is going to be elsewhere.

When Wake Forest emerges from its late-September off week, time will have run out for acclimation.

Clemson has a new quarterback (Cade Klubnik) and a new offensive coordinator (Garrett Riley), the main sources of its renewed optimism. The Tigers will have already played at Duke and against Florida State to this point, so we’ll know a whole lot more about their new faces when this game happens compared to what little we know now.

A win would mean …: A whole lot.

One, it’d establish Wake Forest as an early contender for one of the spots in the ACC championship game. Clemson and Florida State — spoiler alert, they’re next on this list — are penciled in as the league’s top two teams. The Deacons snatching an early October win on the road against one of them would send a shockwave through the conference (unless the first month has already derailed) the preseason favorites).

Don’t lose track of the historic significance or what it’d mean for the Deacons. Wake Forest hasn’t beaten Clemson since it handed the Tigers a 12-7 loss in 2008, which led to Dabo Swinney’s hiring. Wake Forest hasn’t won at Clemson since 1998, having lost the last five games there by an average of 30.6 points.

And it’d be some sweet revenge for Wake’s double overtime loss to Clemson in last season’s showdown in Winston-Salem.

2. vs. Florida State

Date: Oct. 28.

Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.

Last meeting; series: Wake Forest won 31-21 in 2022; Florida State leads 30-9-1.

Overview: This is here for a lot of the same reasons as those rattled off for Clemson.

The Seminoles might *finally* be back, having returned one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC (Jordan Travis), several standout skill position players (running back Trey Benson wide receiver Johnny Wilson), and eight starters from a defense that was 20th in the country in scoring (20.6 points per game).

Clemson and FSU will be the popular picks to meet in Charlotte for the ACC championship; Wake Forest is one of four teams (Duke, Miami and Syracuse are the others) that plays Clemson and FSU this season.

The good news there is the Deacons control their own destiny when it comes to competing for an ACC crown.

A win would mean …: Wake Forest has a four-game winning streak over FSU.

And, well, it’d mean a few more things.

That’s something that shouldn’t get lost in the conversation, though. Wake Forest has held the upper hand in recent matchups against the Seminoles and last season’s win at Doak S. Campbell Stadium was Wake’s best performance of the season (magnified by it coming a week after the loss to Clemson).

A continuation of holding that upper hand in this series — which takes a break in 2024 because of the new scheduling model — means the Deacons would be in the race at the top of the league’s standings.

3. at Duke

Date: Nov. 2 (Thursday night).

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.

Last meeting; series: Duke won 34-31 in 2022; Duke leads 59-41-2.

Overview: Two like-minded programs will continue to meet every year through the ACC’s new scheduling model.

And with how often these two cross paths for the same recruits, head-to-head meetings are going to go a long way for the next few years.

Duke is coming off a surprise nine-win season in the first season under coach Mike Elko, the former Wake Forest defensive coordinator. The Blue Devils return most key contributors, especially on offense, but will face a schedule that’s no longer aided by the ACC’s Coastal Division.

There’s an argument to be made that Duke is the ACC team with a tougher schedule than Wake Forest; the point that both have tough schedules holds water because they’re on each other’s schedule.

This game being on a Thursday night in the back half of the season doesn’t bode well for either team.

A win would mean …: Wake Forest starts a brutal November on the right foot.

Three of Wake’s four November games are on the road, including a return trip to Durham, where the Deacons lost a heartbreaker last year to end the regular season.

And that’s really the crux of why this game is so important.

Wake Forest hasn’t had a winning record in November since going 3-2 in 2008. Even in the Deacons’ 11-win season two years ago, they were 2-2 in the final month of the regular season.

It’s a month that typically exposes Wake’s lack of depth and, if the Deacons want to contend for an ACC title, it’s a month they’re going to have to win.

4. at Virginia Tech

Date: Oct. 14.

Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va.

Last meeting; series: Wake Forest won 23-16 in 2020; Virginia Tech leads 25-13-1.

Overview: Aye, what in the world is a game against a team that was 3-8 last year doing on this list?!

Wake Forest will get to know its 2-hours-north neighbor well over the next four years, as the Hokies are one of the Deacons’ three repeat opponents in the ACC’s new scheduling model.

Beating any team in your league is valuable; beating one that’s within 150 miles of your campus, who you see often recruiting the same players, whose state you’ve pulled several standouts from in recent years — that takes on significantly more importance.

And you’ll have plenty more times to see everybody’s favorite meme of Frank Beamer pointing to the heavens about a 0-0 game going to overtime.

Plus, this will be one of three games for Wake Forest played in front of a crowd of 60,000-plus, along with trips to Clemson and Notre Dame.

A win would mean …: Wake Forest starts a four-year series against Virginia Tech on the right foot.

Of the Deacons’ three constant opponents for the next four years, this matchup is the one I’m most interested in. That’s probably because Wake Forest has already been playing Duke every year and that series was destined to be continued, and Georgia Tech is rebuilding under a new coach for the second time in five years.

The Hokies are the ones with an upstart coach who’s threatening the established order in regional recruiting. We’re going to throw around the “sleeping giant” label, but it would be in Wake’s best interest to continue holding a head-to-head upper hand.

Also worth remembering: Wake’s win at FSU last year was in front of nearly 70,000 fans. Such wins in front of massive crowds aren’t easy to come by and this game in Blacksburg will present a similar opportunity.

5. vs. N.C. State

Date: Nov. 11.

Location: Allegacy Stadium, Winston-Salem.

Last meeting; series: N.C. State won 30-21 in 2022; N.C. State leads 68-42-6.

Overview: Yes, the series is going to end. Wake Forest and N.C. State have played 116 times total, and every season since 1910.

It’s shameful that conferences have bloated into unrecognizable amorphous blobs devoid of regional and rivalry passions. A series that survived two world wars and a pandemic is going to halt because the TV companies need their millions.

But hey, at least we get two more years of Wake Forest-N.C. State games.

These have been, for the most part, thrilling games. Only once in the past six seasons was the result of this game a double-digit margin (Wake’s 44-10 win in 2019). It’s a matchup that pits two established coaches against each other, both coming to the ACC from the MAC, both Dave Clawson and Dave Doeren having known each other long before meeting in this league.

A win would mean …: Wake Forest scores another of those valuable wins against a Big 4 rival.

It’s hard to project where the Deacons will be with their 10th game of the season. Maybe this one keeps them alive for a shot at reaching the ACC championship game; maybe that ship has sailed, but it clinches a bowl berth.

What we do know, regardless of what this game will mean in the standings, is that Clawson and athletics director John Currie have placed a premium on winning Big 4 games. Scoring one of those here, in the only home game of November, would be a boost in a few different areas.

Three of the five games on this list have a payback element to them, this being the last example.