Published Feb 11, 2024
Preview: Wake Forest at No. 9 Duke
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons head onto road in Saturday-Monday swing for second time this season, aiming for this one to go better than first instance

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The first time this type of situation played out, Wake Forest didn’t go “live” in practice between a Saturday home game and Monday night game on Tobacco Road.

Steve Forbes said after Saturday’s win over N.C. State, with Monday night’s trip to Duke looming, that wouldn’t be the case this time.

“We’ve been going Saturday-Tuesday, and on the Sunday … practice we’ve just been walking through and going live on Monday,” Forbes said. “After the Pitt game, we went live the next day and we started rolling.”

The Deacons have won three straight since that trip to Pitt, the first two by 29 each and the third being Saturday’s back-and-forth affair against the Wolfpack, ending in Wake’s 83-79 win.

There’s a delicate balance to strike here, coming off an emotional win and figuring how to both dial your team back up to game speed quickly, but not overspend the collective energy. Duke is on a similar schedule, though the Blue Devils’ game against Boston College on Saturday started two hours earlier and they don’t have to travel.

“They’ve got to go,” Forbes said on Saturday. “Marqus (Marion)’s parents are here from Denmark, Cam (Hildreth)’s parents from England, everybody’s parents are here. Go eat dinner and get off your feet.

“Tonight is not the night to go out. … We’ll practice at 2, we’ll go live, we’ll get on the bus and I guess there’s a football game (Sunday) night.”

So, there are your marching orders. If you’re wondering Forbes — because he’s a Midwest guy, as he put it — is pulling for the Chiefs.

And then it’s a matter of trying to pull Wake Forest into a win at Duke.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Monday night’s game:

Time: 7 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 179-80; Duke won 75-73 on Jan. 31 last season, as both teams won on their home courts.

Of note: Wake Forest has not won at Cameron since 1997, Tim Duncan’s senior season.

Records: Wake Forest 16-7, 8-4 ACC; Duke 18-5, 9-3.

Stats to watch: 54.6% | 40.2%.

The first number is Duke’s assist rate, which is 84th in the country; the second is Wake’s defensive assist rate, which is the 7th-lowest in the country (both per KenPom and entering Sunday’s games).

It’s pretty simple: Duke’s offense is at its best when the ball moves and Wake’s defense is one of the best in the country at making opposing offenses play stagnant.

Another simple part of this: Duke’s assist rate in five losses is 40.7%; its assist rate in the 18 wins is 58.2%, and only four times this season have the Blue Devils won a game when that clip is under 50%.

The trend here has been positive for Duke after North Carolina took it out of its offensive rhythm a week ago. Against the Tar Heels, Duke had eight assists on 35 field goals; in the relatively comfortable wins over Notre Dame and Boston College, Duke had a combined 32 assists on 56 field goals (57.1%).

Wake’s defensive assist rate is second-best among high-major teams (Creighton is first). The Deacons’ defense plays passing lanes and generates deflections, a byproduct of having two shot-blocking threats — Efton Reid III and Andrew Carr — on the court for the bulk of games.

Wake Forest has allowed one team in its last seven games to go higher than 50% on assist rate. That was Georgia Tech, which had 12 assists on 17 field goals in a game the Deacons won by 29 and led 33-5 after about 15 minutes.

Matchup to watch: Wake Forest forward Andrew Carr (No. 11) vs. Duke forward Mark Mitchell (No. 25).

The likelihood of either player leading his team in scoring might be low.

The likelihood of the winner of this matchup playing for the winning team is high.

Wake Forest is at its best when Carr is able to both stretch the floor and hit a 3-pointer or two — he’s at 40.3%, 27 of 67, this season — and attacking the paint. You don’t have to stretch back too far to find evidence, as he scored 15 points, had seven rebounds, blocked three shots, and had the go-ahead bucket with 18 seconds left against N.C. State on Saturday.

That was the eighth straight game in which Carr has scored in double figures. He’s also averaging 5.9 rebounds and has blocked 13 shots in that span.

He’ll be matched up with Mitchell, Duke’s own X-factor whose offensive activity is a strong barometer of his team’s success on that end.

Duke is 28-3 across the last two seasons when Mitchell scores in double figures; 15-9 when he plays and doesn’t hit that mark.

As much as Mitchell’s shooting struggles were discussed in November and December, don’t let this go unnoticed: After starting 1-for-22 on 3-pointers, Mitchell has made 5 of his 9. He made both of his attempts against BC.

Blue Devil to watch: Guard Jeremy Roach (No. 3).

Duke’s fourth-year guard had a pedestrian performance against Notre Dame last week, so his follow-up game against BC was a little predictable.

Roach is coming off a 16-point game, along with four assists and three rebounds, while committing just one turnover.

It’s a Duke team that’s older than most of the ones for the past decade, but still relies heavily on freshmen and sophomores. It leaves Roach, and to a lesser extent center Ryan Young, as the experienced player who becomes a go-to option in late-clock situations.

In last season’s game at Cameron, Roach scored 21 against the Deacons. He’s a three-level scorer who’s undersized (6-2, 180), but uses some veteran savvy to get to his spots and score. He was a 32.8% 3-point shooter in his first three seasons at Duke and is shooting 44.3% this season.

Deacon to watch: Center Efton Reid III (No. 4).

If you held your breath when Reid picked up his second foul 2 minutes and 36 seconds into Saturday’s game, thinking about how the Deacons looked when he was on the bench and after he fouled out in the first matchup against N.C. State … you’re probably not alone.

Reid had one more foul all game, with about four minutes left. The junior 7-footer did what he could to neutralize DJ Burns Jr., played through some of that foul trouble, and had nine points and five rebounds against the Wolfpack.

(credit here, again, goes to Matthew Marsh and his effort against Burns in a redemption arc.)

Facing Duke center Kyle Filipowski is a challenge not in the same realm as playing Burns, as the Blue Devils’ sophomore is as likely to pick-and-pop for a 3-pointer as he is to back down a defender in the low post.

Still, it’s a matchup that’s going to require Reid to stay out of foul trouble. Filipowski draws 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes in league games, which is the eighth-most in the ACC — and it’s a tick down from the 5.6 per 40 he drew last year (again in league games, and per KenPom).

What’s on deck: This isn’t Wake’s only shot of the week at a Quad-1 win.

The Deacons head to Virginia on Saturday to play a team that’s both the same that it beat by 19 about a month ago, and a very different Cavaliers team. That was UVA’s last loss, as the Cavaliers have won eight straight games to vault into second place in the ACC.

Duke wraps up a three-game homestand with this game and plays its next three on the road, including a rematch in Winston-Salem on Feb. 24. Before then, Duke goes to Florida State (Feb. 17) and Miami (Feb. 21).

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 79-73.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: Saturday-Monday swings are hard enough, and throw in the aspect of playing a physically grinding, emotional win in the first leg of it, that second one gets more difficult.

Not that Wake Forest shouldn’t bother showing up on Monday.

Duke is far from an unbeatable team. Some parts of this matchup favor the Deacons. And they’ve lost by two each of the last two visits to Cameron.

It’s bound to be a high-level game complete with all of the momentum swings and big shots, apropos of a game between two of the four best teams in the ACC.