Published Feb 21, 2023
Preview: Wake Forest at N.C. State
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons get second chance at Quad-1 win in as many games with trip to Raleigh

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It’s the Al Davis portion of the college basketball calendar — not that what follows isn’t important throughout the season.

But now, more than ever: Just win, baby.

“We had a blown opportunity on Saturday to get a Quad-1 win on the road at Miami,” Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said. “We’ve got another opportunity on Wednesday. You’ve gotta win those games.”

There’s frustration from Forbes and others across the sport with the NET rankings, specifically a formula that’s apparently above anybody’s paygrade to see.

But it’s not like the NCAA tournament selection committee is going to change its tools a few weeks before Selection Sunday — so here we are.

Wake’s last regular-season chance at a Quad-1 win will be in against N.C. State on Wednesday night (barring a seismic rise by Syracuse in the next 10 days).

“I think you’ve got to be honest with the players about where we’re at,” Forbes said. “We’ve got to win them all, but some are more important than others. …

“I think you just have to tell them the truth. You know, it’s the end of the season. Just two weeks left in the season, let’s go. It’s go time.”

**********

Here’s what to know ahead of Wednesday night’s game:

Time: 9 p.m.

Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh.

TV: Regional Sports Network (the lights are still on for Bally’s).

Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play) and Cory Alexander (analyst).

Series; last meeting: N.C. State leads 147-108; N.C. State won 79-77 on Jan. 28.

Records: Wake Forest 17-10, 9-7 ACC; N.C. State 21-7, 11-6.

Stat to watch: 54.2% | 19-for-39.

The first number is Wake’s 2-point shooting percentage this season, 40th in the country (via KenPom entering Monday’s games); the second is what the Deacons shot against N.C. State in the first matchup.

There’s one other key number here: 11.

That’s how many blocks N.C. State had in the first meeting and it still stands as a season high against the Deacons — nearly twice as much as any other opponent has had (UNC, App State and Utah Valley all had six).

Wake Forest was slightly worse in 2-point shooting in the game after playing N.C. State, going 15-for-33 at Duke (Dereck Lively II was a factor), and has made over 50% of its 2-point attempts in each of the last four games.

That includes an ACC-best 17-for-23 (73.9%) against Miami on Saturday, in which the Hurricanes didn’t have a blocked shot.

Matchup to watch: Wake Forest centers Matthew Marsh (No. 33) and Davion Bradford (No. 20) vs. N.C. State’s DJ Burns Jr. (No. 30).

Whether Burns would be featured prominently in this preview wasn’t a question; it was just a matter of where.

This section makes the most sense.

Forbes called Burns the best post-scorer in the ACC and it’s easy to see why (rather than argue against it). The 6-9, 275-pounder had 31 points in the Wolfpack’s win in Winston-Salem about three weeks ago, continuously getting to his left hand (strong hand) to score over and around Wake’s post defense.

The Deacons didn’t double-team Burns in the post, in part because they’d given up 33 3-pointers in the previous two games, and in part because Burns is a decent passer out of the post. Once when Wake Forest doubled him, he kicked to the corner for a key 3-pointer.

“You’ve gotta figure out how you’re going to guard him,” Forbes said of Burns.

If Bradford doesn’t start Wednesday night’s game, the former Kansas State center will come off the bench early. He’s been Forbes go-to option for post defense; his only start in the last 23 games came against UNC and Armando Bacot.

But all of the Deacons’ eggs won’t be in that basket.

“We’ll have some new things for him that we didn’t do last time,” Forbes said.

Wolf to watch: Guard Jarkel Joiner (No. 1).

Joiner was featured in a matchup to watch in the first preview (there were two, in a rare mashup) because, in part, he was coming off a big game.

The more things change, the more they—you know the rest.

The sixth-year guard matched a season high with 29 points against UNC on Sunday afternoon, making 11 of 21 shots and punctuating the win by flushing an alley-oop from Terquavion Smith in the final minutes.

Joiner hasn’t had the same level of consistency as Wake’s Tyree Appleby but there’s an argument to be made that he’s been just as important to the Wolfpack. He’s exploded for performances like Sunday’s game, which was his seventh game of the season with more than 25 points, and he’d provided a stabilizing hand for coach Kevin Keatts in a pivotal season.

In these teams’ first matchup, Joiner was coming off a 28-point game against Notre Dame and he scored 17 on the Deacons, knocking down 3 of his 5 3-point attempts.

Deacon to watch: Guard Cameron Hildreth (No. 2).

There’s an argument to be made for Hildreth as Wake’s most-consistent player this season.

And there’s an argument to be made that his first game against N.C. State was the worst of his season.

Hildreth scored 12 points against the Wolfpack, but did so on 5-for-15 shooting. He had three turnovers, matching the most he’s had in any ACC game.

It makes sense on some levels. Hildreth excels at driving guards into the post and maneuvering around them, and N.C. State’s Casey Morsell (6-3, 200) and Smith (6-4, 165) can be stingy defensively.

The Deacons will obviously need more from Hildreth in this game. He’s given them more in each of the last two games, too, with 19 points against Georgia Tech and a 14-point, eight-assist game at Miami.

KenPom prediction: N.C. State wins 82-76.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: The timing here might play into Wake’s favor, with N.C. State coming off an emotionally charged win over UNC on Sunday.

The other aspect at work there is the literal game time; a 9 p.m. start on a Wednesday night doesn’t lend itself to the largest crowds — though N.C. State is 14-1 at PNC Arena this season and it’s not like those have all been Saturday games.

The bottom line here is as obvious as it’ll ever get: Wake Forest needs a win. Not just because it’d give the Deacons a Quad-1 win for the all-important NET resume, but it’d be a nice jumping-off point for a final stretch of the season in which the Deacons can’t afford to lose any games.