Published Jan 16, 2023
Preview: No. 19 Clemson at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons’ offense clicking at high rate as they enter top-tier ACC matchup against Clemson

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Steve Forbes’ confidence in his ability to instill confidence in his team rarely wavers.

In turn, Wake Forest’s confidence remained through some tough offensive games in December.

Now the Deacons are reaping the rewards.

“I think they’ve always been pretty confident offensive players,” Forbes said of his team, which has won three straight. “I try to give them confidence, man, I really do. I think it’s a really important thing with your team.”

Keeping confidence through December losses at Clemson and Rutgers, during which the Deacons were held to 57 points each time, might have induced some doubt. It just didn’t break their confidence.

“We had a tough half at Clemson, had a really good first half. … Rutgers was just a bad game. Credit to Rutgers,” Forbes said. “We learned. That’s the thing you want to do, you want to … learn from good things and bad things.

“I feel like we’ve learned from that.”

And now the Deacons have been rolling.

In Wake’s last six games, the Deacons are averaging 1.18 points per possession. For some context, only six teams in the country average at least 1.18 points per possession this season. Among those that don’t are No. 1 Houston, No. 2 Kansas and No. 4 Alabama.

Five of Wake’s last six games were wins, with the loss coming at UNC — the Tar Heels, like the Deacons, are unbeaten at home — and they’ve thrust Wake Forest into the second-place logjam in the ACC standings.

Five teams have two league losses. They’re all chasing Clemson, and Wake Forest is the team that gets a chance to deal the Tigers their first league loss of the season.

It’s also a chance for Wake Forest to even the season series against the Tigers, having lost 77-57 back in the ACC opener after leading by seven at halftime.

Wake’s offensive numbers are as gross as you probably remember from that early December night.

The Deacons shot 7-for-29 in the second half, including a 2-for-13 mark on 3s. Wake Forest was outscored 51-24 after halftime.

“Watching the film back, they missed some shots that they normally have a chance to make,” Clemson coach Brad Brownell said of the first meeting.

And on what he sees when flipping on tape from Wake’s more-recent games:

“I don’t think they’re doing anything drastically different,” Brownell continued. “They still do all of the things that are really hard to guard. They have very good shooting, they’ve got an elite point guard in (Tyree) Appleby, who spreads you out and has great vision and skips the ball around.”

The first time Wake Forest played Clemson, the Deacons didn’t make shots and the shot selection was poor, particularly in the second half.

Confidence didn’t leave the Deacons that night, and they’ll enter the rematch with more of it on Tuesday night.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Tuesday night’s game:

Time: 9 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: Regional sports networks (Bally Sports South if you’re in N.C.).

Announcers: Eric Collins (play-by-play) and Brian Oliver (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 100-67; Clemson won the ACC opener 77-57 on Dec. 2.

Of note: Clemson is 15-2 in the series since Dino Gaudio was fired in 2010.

Records: Clemson 15-3, 7-0 ACC; Wake Forest 13-5, 5-2.

Stat to watch: 38.0% | 37.8%.

The first number is Clemson’s 3-point percentage, which is 25th best in the country; the second is Wake’s 3-point clip, which is 30th (both via KenPom entering Monday’s games).

You want high-level shot making, this is probably the game for you.

Clemson isn’t as reliant on 3-point shooting as you might think; the Tigers score 32% of their points from beyond the 3-point line, the 152nd highest mark in the country. In Clemson’s last six games — all against ACC teams — the Tigers have averaged 6.3 3-pointers per game.

On Saturday, Clemson was 3-for-17 from behind the arc in beating Duke. That matched a season-low, and the other game with three 3s was a loss to Loyola Chicago. Of note for those last six games: fourth-year guard Alex Hemenway missed all six of those because of plantar fasciitis. He was 4-for-6 on 3s in the first meeting. (Brownell confirmed he won’t play Tuesday night, either)

The accuracy clip is the worry, and that’s where Clemson has burned opponents.

You probably don’t need a reminder on this from the first game between Clemson and Wake Forest, but here’s a refresher: Clemson’s erasing of a seven-point halftime deficit had a lot to do with shooting 1-for-10 on 3s in the first half and 8-for-12 in the second.

Where Clemson has been mostly consistent, at least with percentages, Wake Forest has surged.

The Deacons have made 40.6% of their 3s in ACC games, the best clip in the conference. Wake Forest has made double-digit 3s in six of the last seven games, including five straight; and that comes after making double-digit 3s once in the first 11 games.

There’s been no change of emphasis here; the goal has always been to drive and kick. Forbes explains more here:

“It’s a two-part thing, right? Your guys have to drive it. They’ve gotta get on balance, off two feet and they’ve gotta draw the defense, make an on-time, on-target pass,” Forbes said. “And then you have to make the decision, ‘Are my feet set, do I shoot it?’ And if not, do I go one more (pass)?

“I just think we’re getting more efficient at that. I think we’re shooting the right ones.”

Another way to look at things for the Deacons: Since making a combined 13 of 52 (25%) against Clemson and LSU, Wake Forest is 83 of 199 (41.7%).

Forbes said the Deacons took 14 “bad shots” against Clemson in the first meeting.

Matchup to watch: Clemson’s frontcourt vs. Wake’s frontcourt.

Without Hemenway, Clemson moved Ian Schieffelin (6-7, 230) into its starting lineup. He’s a versatile player at the 4-spot, and it’s allowed the Tigers to move Hunter Tyson (6-8, 217) to the 3-spot, where he’s thrived.

Tyson had a string of five straight double-doubles halted Saturday against Duke, as the Blue Devils held him to seven points and six rebounds.

The 5-position for Clemson has been PJ Hall, and we’ll dive into what he brings to the table later.

It’s likely you know the value of Damari Monsanto and how hot he’s been of late. Wake’s sharpshooting wing had an off night at Boston College (1-for-5 on 3s) and it’ll be Tyson’s task to make it two straight. Monsanto was also 1-for-5 against UNC a couple of weeks ago, and he followed that up with a 14-for-27 clip in Wake’s next three games.

Andrew Carr was named the ACC's player of the week for his pair of 20-point games last week. He had a combined 43 points on 18-for-24 shooting against FSU and BC, along with 13 rebounds against the Eagles.

And the 5-position …

Matthew Marsh and Davion Bradford combined for 12 points (Bradford eight, Marsh four) in 21 minutes against BC without missing a field goal (5-for-5).

“Matt and Davion are, to me, they’re the epitome of playing to your strengths and staying away from your weaknesses,” Forbes said. “They try to do a really good job of that.”

Also of note: Freshman Bobi Klintman has come on strong for the Deacons lately, and hit three 3s against BC on Saturday night.

Tiger to watch: Center PJ Hall (No. 24).

Tyson stole some of Hall’s mojo, with a 28-point, 11-rebound game against Louisville last week, and a 31-point, 15-rebound game against N.C. State a couple of weeks ago.

If there’s any doubt about who’s the most-dangerous frontcourt player for the Tigers, just rewatch Saturday’s win against Duke.

Hall scored 26 points, 18 of which came in a first half when he was Clemson’s only consistent threat.

The scary part is Brownell said Monday that Hall still isn’t 100%.

“He’s not moving as well at times as he was last year,” Brownell said. “I think the other thing that’s challenging is he can very sore at times, days after games, so a bounce-back is a little different. … He’s closer, but I don’t know if he’s all the way (100%) yet.”

The 6-10, 245-pounder was runner-up for the ACC’s most improved player last season, but his junior season has had something of a slow takeoff. He was slowed at the end of last season by a foot injury, and then suffered a knee injury over the summer.

Wake Forest caught Hall on the upswing when he had 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting in the first meeting, along with eight rebounds. He was held to single-digit scoring in three of the last four games in December — a then-season-high 25 points against Georgia Tech in there, too — and was plodding along this month before Saturday night’s outburst against the Blue Devils.

Deacon to watch: Guard Cameron Hildreth (No. 2).

The sophomore got sped up at UNC a couple of weeks ago and it resulted in the worst game of this breakout season — a season-low two points, one assist, one rebound, three turnovers and three fouls in 20 minutes.

He’s moved forward with three of his best games.

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Forbes noted the type of player, specifically his background, Hildreth is when explaining this surge of confidence from the 6-4, 195-pound guard.

“Cam’s a smart player, he’s a coach’s son,” Forbes said. “I think it helps him when I’m confident in him. I don’t think Cam’s the guy that I need to be yelling at a whole lot. I think he needs to hear encouragement from me and the whole staff.”

He noted that it was around this time last season that Hildreth’s role was diminished; in a Jan. 12 loss to Duke he played 23 minutes, and then played a combined 26 minutes in Wake’s next 11 games.

Obviously no such benching is in order this season — it’s just worth noting how Hildreth’s confidence has bloomed since the end of last season, and how large of a role he’s taken on this year.

“Sometimes you’ve gotta go through those things to learn,” Forbes said. “He’s an intrical part of our team. I think he’s one of the most-improved players in the league.”

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 76-75.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: This is a big-time matchup.

Clemson is being chased by two-loss Wake Forest and three other ACC teams with two league losses (Syracuse or Miami, Pittsburgh and Virginia). And this is Clemson’s only remaining game in January against a team within shouting distance of it in the standings; the others are against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Boston College.

In short: Clemson can really start pulling away in the standings with a win at Wake Forest.

The Tigers are the only team in the ACC that Forbes has yet to beat. Not that the previous three meetings have much bearing once the ball is tipped.

Wake Forest should get a great home-court advantage. The third word of that sentence is the important one. Just because it’s what should happen doesn’t mean it will; but it’d be a nice start at having an upper hand against the Tigers.

Buckle up. This should be a 40-minute battle, complete with high-level playmaking.

And keep your seatbelt on. Saturday’s game against BC was one of those “tough-guy games” Forbes has referenced, this game against Clemson is another one, Saturday’s visit from No. 10 Virginia will be, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh on Jan. 25.