Two of the four unbeaten teams in the ACC match up for high-octane showdown
Which team had the better second half this week:
The one that overcame a four-point halftime deficit and got a clutch 3-pointer in the closing seconds, scoring one of the five road wins that’s happened in the ACC so far?
Or the one that dropped 60 points on a ranked team with two star players catching fire, all while missing its No. 2 scorer?
Well, it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. The former was Wake Forest on Tuesday night at Boston College; the latter is Miami against Clemson on Wednesday night.
“One of our identity pieces is we're trying to be a gritty, grimy, tough team and in the second half, we were,” Deacons coach Steve Forbes said after Tuesday’s game. “I just didn’t think we were very sharp in the first half and they were. They took the game to us, but as the game wore on, we kind of found our rhythm and played a lot better.”
Said Jim Larranaga after his game: “I just think good shooters make shots, but they don’t make them all. … But overall, when you’re playing that well defensively, you’re not thinking about shots. You’re just playing so hard that the shots come in rhythm, and that’s what happened.”
What we will know after Saturday is which of Wake Forest and Miami is 3-0 in the ACC, as these are two of the four unbeaten teams left in a league that’s already cannibalizing itself with every team having 17 or 18 ACC games left.
**********
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:
Time: 2:15 p.m.
Location: Joel Coliseum.
TV: The CW.
Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play) and Mike Gminski (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Miami leads 16-13 and has won four straight games in the series; Miami ended Wake’s season last year by beating the Deacons 74-72 in the ACC tournament.
Records: Miami 11-2, 2-0 ACC; WF 10-3, 2-0.
Stat to watch: 41.6% | 27.2%.
The first number is Miami’s 3-point percentage, third-best in the country; the second is Miami’s 3-point defense, 10th-lowest in the country.
The Hurricanes are an elite-shooting team and don’t get beat from beyond the arc; a nice formula for winning a lot of games in college basketball these days.
Personnel changes but Miami’s offense remains this free-flowing, hyper-efficient machine that it’s been for the past few years under Larranaga. And that means you can’t focus on any one particular shooter.
Five players are shooting above 40% on 3s; not bad for a team with a limited rotation. Wooga Poplar is the top shooter at 50% (30 of 60), but he missed Wednesday night’s win over No. 16 Clemson with an ankle injury and his status is up in the air for Saturday.
Without Poplar, Kyshawn George (40.8%), Matthew Cleveland (47.1%) and Nijel Pack (45.8%) pumped in 10 3-pointers against the Tigers. Bensley Joseph (40.9%) is the fifth player above that 40% threshold, impressive for a player known more for his defensive peskiness.
Even Norchad Omier, 5-for-16 on 3s last year, has made 8 of 23 already this season to keep defenses honest.
What formula might work against Miami’s defense? Take fewer 3s.
Kentucky was 9-for-21 in a 22-point drubbing of Miami, and Colorado was 7-for-20 in its 27-point blowout of the Hurricanes. The only other Miami opponent to take fewer than 23 3s was UCF (5-for-20) in the second game of the season.
(Granted, equating 3s attempted with win-loss records can be like looking at rushing yardage in football; Kentucky and Colorado didn’t need to keep hoisting 3s in their blowout wins.)
Matchup to watch: Miami’s guards against Wake’s guards.
There is a Jon Rothstein-ism about Miami’s guards.
That doesn’t necessarily make them better than Wake’s guards.
This is a matchup between two of the three elite backcourts in the ACC (Duke being the third). It’s firepower galore, three-level scoring, impact players from the bench, etc. Everything about this game screams that whichever backcourt controls the pace is going to win.
Miami’s backcourt is named above; Pack, Poplar (if healthy), George and Joseph.
If you’re reading this, you probably have a good handle on the versatility and explosiveness of Wake’s Kevin Miller, Cameron Hildreth and Hunter Sallis.
Hurricane to watch: Center Norchad Omier (No. 15).
Now that we’ve spent time on Miami’s guards, let’s talk about the Hurricanes’ leading scorer.
Omier is a ground-and-pound physical specimen, at 6-7, 240 and not the least bit bulky. He’s scoring 18 points per game (seventh in the ACC) and shooting 63.2% (second in ACC).
And the fourth-year Nicaraguan is on a roll lately. Omier has scored at least 20 in four straight games, matching Miami’s four-game winning streak. He’s had seven 20-point games this season after he had three last year, in which Miami went to the Final Four and lost to eventual champion Connecticut.
The foul situation is always worth monitoring with Omier, one of the more-physical players in the league. The only games he’s fouled out of this season are Miami’s losses; he played a season-low 19 minutes at Kentucky, and played 26 minutes against Colorado. Omier has only been called for five fouls in the last three games, three of those coming against Clemson.
Deacon to watch: Guard Cameron Hildreth (No. 2).
Using the sample size of Wake’s games against Miami, it’s fun to see Hildreth’s growth from freshman to sophomore seasons.
As a freshman: 15 minutes, 2 points, 1-for-2 shooting (0-1 3-pointers), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 fouls.
As a sophomore: 74 minutes, 31 points, 11-for-20 shooting (2-3 3-pointers), 5 rebounds, 15 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 steals, 3 fouls.
Granted, there’s a context here. It’s not the best way of showing a player’s growth and development, cherry picking performances against a certain team.
But it’s relevant for this preview.
Hildreth is coming off an 18-point game at Boston College in which he got hot in the second half. After a four-point, three-turnover first half, the junior had 14 points in the second half, including a couple of 3s to mark the first game in his career he’s made three 3s.
That’s the other part of Hildreth’s development story — in 33 games last season, he was 20-for-61 (32.8%) from beyond the arc. In 13 games this season, he’s 18-for-39 (46.2%) and has made 5 of 6 in Wake’s two ACC games.
What’s on deck: Wake Forest goes from playing a Sunshine State school at home to the Sunshine State with a trip to Florida State for a Tuesday night game. FSU is scuffling for the third straight season under Leonard Hamilton, but also has the talent to beat good teams, as its win over Colorado is one of the ACC’s best non-conference wins.
Miami goes home to play Louisville on Wednesday night before coming back to this region for a game at Virginia Tech next weekend.
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 82-78.
Deacons Illustrated prognosis: Let’s get to it, already.
This has become one of the biggest matchups on the ACC’s January calendar. Wake Forest is hot; Miami is coming off its best win. These are two of the four teams in the ACC to start league play 2-0.
The Deacons and Hurricanes have played four times over the past two seasons; twice, the winning score was in the 90s, and the other two times were games decided by a combined six points.
Despite Wake’s students not being back, it should be a raucous environment.
Enough waiting around, let’s get this game going.