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Published Sep 20, 2024
My Take: Sorting through Wake’s schedule switcharoo
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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When nothing becomes something, it’s time to recalibrate.

Wake Forest’s silence on its cancellation of next year’s game at Mississippi broke with the corresponding announcement of the Deacons’ home-and-home agreement with Oregon State on Wednesday.

A lot of blanks have been filled in between late Saturday night and Wednesday afternoon. Let’s hit them:

- A source at Wake Forest confirmed the buyout of next year’s game at Ole Miss was not $1 million. It was not that high, but oftentimes, the first number reported is the one that sticks in everybody’s mind.

(Those familiar with discussion of Wake Forest basketball between fall of 2017 and spring of 2020 should know that last part.)

- Oregon State is flush with cash because of the exodus from its league and needs games, given it’s a member of a two-team conference this year and next.

A career in college athletics isn’t necessary to see that Oregon State is funding Wake’s buyout of the Ole Miss game.

- Next year’s trip was canceled on Tuesday of last week (Sept. 10).

Dispel, once and for all, the notion that Ole Miss’ injury shenanigans prompted the cancellation. If anything, the causation is reversed — but that’s for another discussion.

- Per program source, Wake Forest worked to move the return trip but was unable to reach an agreement.

- Wake Forest made sure it had a verbal agreement from Oregon State before canceling the Ole Miss trip. Wake Forest received the contract from Oregon State a couple of hours before Wednesday’s announcement, again, via program source.

The timing is rough and a PR headache could have been avoided, but what’s done is done in that arena. Ideal situations are only revealed in hindsight.

A lot of the financial logistics will be confirmed through FOIAs. Wake Forest doesn’t have to respond to public records requests but on the occasions it signs contracts with public institutions, that information is available.

For now, we have: This decision is financially beneficial to Wake Forest, via source close to the program.

And: “… it was the right business decision …” from John Currie via Wednesday’s news release.

Along with: “We are going to come out of this with a net positive financially,” via Dave Clawson on his Wednesday night radio show.

That’s either a lot of confirmation that Wake’s financials are in the black on this, or it’s a lot of material for freezing cold takes, Wake Forest edition.

The decision

In general, the rule of thumb is: The athletics director makes the non-conference football schedule and is responsible for alterations, and every other sport handles its own schedule.

It’s something that feels like common knowledge by those in college athletics, but also something that perhaps isn’t acknowledged enough when it comes to these decisions. I’m not sure why it’s the case; just that it’s how the operation goes.

Given Clawson has been a head coach for 25 years and is in his 11th season at Wake Forest, and he was the coach when the home-and-home with Ole Miss was scheduled, it’s hard to see Currie operating without some input from his coach.

Nevertheless: A source confirmed this was a decision by Currie and not by Clawson.

One prevailing thought

No amount of explanation can upend this part of thinking:

Wake Forest just admitted it can’t compete at the top of the food chain in college football.

Sure, that might not be new information. The 65-game losing streak to top-10 teams springs to mind as evidence, along with the program’s all-time winning percentage of .404.

But it has been a program willing to compete and test itself against the sport’s elite.

Until the last couple of versions of the ACC’s scheduling model, that wasn’t something Wake Forest had to prove with non-conference matchups. When Clemson and Florida State are on the schedule, you knew at least one of them — possibly both — would have a team capable of winning a national championship.

There are three ACC programs presumably operating in the deep end of NIL spending and talent acquisition; Florida State, Miami and Clemson (for freshmen, not transfers). Only one of those is on Wake’s schedule next year and it’s the one that’s already lost three games as a favorite this season. To call the non-conference slate uninspired is almost generous.

Wake’s program is in a precarious position. It played for an ACC championship three years ago and since the start of the 2022 season, Wake Forest is 7-15 against power conference teams.

Through three games, the strongest sign that this season isn’t headed toward the same fate as last year is that Wake’s offense isn’t the same systematic failure it was last year. And yet: Last weekend’s 40-6 loss to Ole Miss was the first time since 2019 that Wake Forest didn’t score a touchdown.

This was the wrong time to send any sort of message that Wake Forest can’t compete with the sport’s elite programs. It reads like confirmation that if/when college football breaks apart into separate tiers, Wake Forest isn’t willing to fight for a spot at the table with the big boys.

It’s substituting a game against a team that would probably beat you — whether Lane Kiffin is there or Florida next year — for one that’s going to be sort of winnable, along with a home game sometime in the next five years against a team left on realignment’s cutting room floor.

It’s removing a road trip that had appeal for one that less of the fanbase can afford and that doesn’t move the interest needle nearly as much.

A short-term financial boost with lasting implications.

It’s LOWF disguised as capitalism.

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