Published Feb 25, 2025
Preview: Virginia at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons in position for another bounce-back game

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As the world of Wake Forest’s basketball team turns, the Deacons have another bounce-back chance.

Wake Forest has only lost back-to-back games once this season and that was when it played Duke and went to Louisville a few days later. Losses haven’t been compounded into losing streaks and Wake Forest needs that trend to continue.

The Deacons are coming off an 85-73 loss at N.C. State over the weekend. After Wake Forest took a five-point lead with about 8½ minutes left, it gave up a 13-0 run and committed too many mistakes. Defensively, that was obvious; three turnovers on the offensive end, two of them fouls, were too much to overcome.

“The turnovers after that 8:23 mark, they crushed us,” coach Steve Forbes said earlier this week. “They really hurt us because we weren’t getting stops.”

As simple as it seems, that’s where notching another bounce-back win can start. Wake Forest gave up a season-high 13 3-pointers against the Wolfpack and allowed its Tobacco Road rival to get, in Forbes’ words, comfortable on the offensive end. That hasn’t been a problem in most games for the Deacons, but it’s been an issue in two of the last three.

And the Deacons can’t commit costly turnovers in crucial moments.

It’s easier typed than done.

Here’s what to know ahead of Wednesday night’s game:

Time: 9 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ESPNU.

Announcers: Jay Alter (play-by-play) and Randolph Childress (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 72-71; Virginia won 49-47 at home last season, as the teams split regular-season meetings.

Records: Virginia 13-14, 6-10 ACC; Wake Forest 19-8, 11-5.

Stat to watch: 13.

Not much to this one — that’s how many 3s Wake Forest gave up at N.C. State on Saturday.

N.C. State went into that game having made double-digit 3s three times in the previous 26 games. One of those 26 saw the Wolfpack go 3-less — it was 0-for-10 in an 82-70 win against Coastal Carolina.

Virginia has been a better 3-point shooting team than N.C. State.

The Cavaliers have made 37.3% of 3s this season, 33rd in the country (per KenPom, entering Tuesday’s games). Were there enough 3s in that sentence?

Before this past weekend (6-for-22 at UNC), Virginia had nine straight games making at least eight 3-pointers.

Matchup to watch: Virginia guard Isaac McKneely (No. 11) vs. whichever Deacon is chasing him.

This is the stat to watch bleeding into the matchup.

McKneely, a junior, has been one of the best 3-point shooters in the ACC for two seasons (and he wasn’t bad as a freshman). His 41.8% clip this season is actually down from 44.5% last year, though he’s already taken (201, from 182) and made (84, from 81) more 3-pointers than he did last year.

The Cavaliers’ offense will run McKneely through a series of baseline cuts and screens to free him up. And that’s where the second part of this equation comes into play.

Cameron Hildreth is probably the one who gets the first crack at McKneely. Hunter Sallis could also wind up having the assignment. Juke Harris could come off the bench and provide a little more length against McKneely than either of the senior guards.

Virginia’s lineup is a little peculiar, though. The Cavaliers’ point guard isn’t the 6-1, 190-pound Dai Dai Ames; it’s been 6-6, 200-pound Andrew Rohde. So, while Ty-Laur Johnson (6-foot, 170) makes sense on Ames, it’ll leave either Hildreth or Sallis guarding Rohde (whichever one doesn’t have McKneely).

Cavalier to watch: Guard Andrew Rohde (No. 4).

Not all previews flow this simply.

As mentioned, Rohde has been Virginia’s primary ball-handler. He has gone from playing the 3-position last season to being this team’s point guard — and, while the Cavaliers’ record is subpar, it’s not necessarily because their offense has struggled with Rohde at the helm.

Rohde’s assist rate of 31.6% is 56th in the country, per KenPom. That’s ahead of players like Michigan State point guard Tre Holloman, Cincinnati point guard Jizzle James and Kentucky point guard Lamont Butler.

For a three-game stretch earlier this month, Rohde had nine assists in each game. He turned the ball over twice in that stretch — and Virginia won all three of those games (against Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech).

In two games since, Rohde has nine assists combined and six turnovers.

Deacon to watch: Guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).

This would say something about “your best players need to be your best players in the biggest games,” but considering where Virginia has fallen to in the ACC standings, probably can’t get away with that one.

Then again, they’re all big games. Especially considering where Wake Forest is heading into the final two weeks of the season.

So, the Deacons need an authoritative performance out of their senior star. He didn’t shoot the ball well at N.C. State (3-for-10) but had nine rebounds, four assists and one turnover.

Another all-around performance like that, with a little better shooting, would go a long way toward the bounce-back win that Wake Forest needs. Sallis scored 21 points on 8-for-13 shooting, and had nine rebounds, when Wake Forest beat Virginia last year; he had 12 points on 5-for-10 shooting in the game Wake Forest lost at Virginia.

What’s on deck: Wake Forest goes from one home game against a team entering the week 6-10 in the ACC … to a home game against a team entering the week 6-10 in the ACC.

The Deacons play host to Notre Dame on Saturday evening. The Irish have lost five of their last seven but got off the schneid over the weekend, beating Pittsburgh 76-72.

Virginia returns to Charlottesville for a game against Clemson on Saturday.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 68-60.

Injury report: It all seems to be business as usual for Wake Forest.

Hildreth returned from the foot injury that kept him from playing at SMU. Parker Friedrichsen’s 5 minutes against N.C. State were not because of an injury.

Virginia had nine players play at least 13 minutes last weekend at UNC. The only real attrition Virginia has seen on its roster was the departure of Jalen Warley, a Florida State transfer who left the program on the eve of the season.

What a Wake Forest loss looks like: Believe it or not with this Virginia team, but a Wake Forest loss probably involves giving up 70-plus points.

Throw out what you think you know about Virginia from the past 15 years. This zombified version of Tony Bennett’s program is better offensively than defensively.

So, for a Wake Forest team that’s been gashed on the scoreboard by FSU and N.C. State recently, losing this game would probably see the Cavaliers put up a big number.

What a Wake Forest win looks like: Well, would it look like the bounce-back win at SMU? Or the slog of a win against Minnesota (after the Florida loss)? Or the solid win over Pitt (after losing to Duke and Louisville)?

It feels like Wake Forest has to lean on its defense for a win in this game. So, it’ll have to be better than it was Saturday .

And the Deacons will need to have a better combined shooting performance from their seniors. That was Efton Reid III, Tre’Von Spillers, Sallis and Hildreth combining to shoot 14-for-39 in Raleigh.

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