Published Nov 22, 2022
Preview: South Carolina State at Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons have to bounce back from rough loss that ended tournament in Jamaica

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Wake Forest went to the Jersey Mike’s Jamaica Classic to win basketball games, not have a good time at the beach, and was two minutes away from notching off that second win.

You probably know what happened next.

The Deacons now have to recover after a late-game collapse against Loyola Marymount. The opponent for Wednesday night’s game — South Carolina State — isn’t to be overlooked.

But this feels like it’s a lot more about Wake Forest than the Bulldogs.

“I’m going to have to go back and look at it and see where we can fix it,” coach Steve Forbes said after Sunday’s overtime loss to LMU. “But it’s inexcusable. It’s probably one of the worst losses I think I’ve ever had as a head coach at the end of the game, just not being able to finish a game.

“It’s very disappointing.”

Now the Deacons have to flip that disappointment into motivation against S.C. State, the first of two home games against 300-plus-ranked KenPom teams (the other is Hampton on Saturday).

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Here’s what to know ahead of Wednesday night’s game:

Time: 8:30 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ACC Network.

Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 3-0; WF won 100-57 in 2002.

Records: S.C. State 0-5; Wake Forest 4-1.

Stat to watch: 14.7.

That’s the average length of a defensive possession for S.C. State, which is the fifth-shortest in the country (per KenPom).

In other words: S.C. State doesn’t play defense for very long.

First-year coach Erik Martin is a disciple of Bob Huggins. He played for him at Cincinnati (1991-93) and coached with him at Kansas State and West Virginia — the latter for 15 seasons. So you’re likely to see a lot of the staples of Huggins — pressure defense, tenacious energy — in the beginning stages of being installed by Martin with the Bulldogs.

It’ll likely mean Wake Forest gets plenty of opportunity to run and score quickly in transition. That’s where the Deacons will benefit from having Tyree Appleby and Daivien Williamson, assuming they’re at full strength.

Bulldog to watch: Guard Rakeim Gary (No. 11).

S.C. State doesn’t have a player averaging double-digit scoring, so Gary is the leading scorer at 9.6 points per game.

He’s coming off of two nice games, though.

Gary scored 13 in a 33-point loss at Kentucky, which saw the 5-10, 165-pound sophomore make 3 of 6 3-pointers. He followed it up with 15 points against North Florida in a loss Saturday, hitting another three 3s.

The past two games have also been the first starts of Gary’s career.

Deacon to watch: Guard Tyree Appleby (No. 1).

All of the on-paper aspects of this game point to Appleby being the pick for this category.

S.C. State’s pressure will have to be handled, and Appleby is going to have the ball in his hands as Wake’s point guard. Appleby is likely to start the game with Gary as his primary matchup, so slowing him down will be important. Appleby leads Wake Forest in scoring (19 points per game), assists (5.4), steals (2.0), and has made almost twice as many free throws as any other Deacon (37, while Williamson has 19).

But it’s also the way Sunday’s overtime loss to Loyola Marymount ended that makes Appleby the only choice for this category.

The sixth-year guard committed three turnovers in the final two minutes of regulation, when LMU overcame an eight-point deficit to force overtime. In the closing seconds of overtime, Appleby got to the basket but missed a layup — followed by Matthew Marsh missing the put-back attempt — as the Deacons lost 77-75.

Getting a bounce-back performance from the player who’s proved early to be Wake’s most-important would go a long way in steadying the season.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 84-62.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: Wake Forest has played three straight mid-majors that would figure to give most power conference teams some issues, and the Deacons went 2-1 in such games.

This is not such a team.

S.C. State entered Tuesday as one of 14 Division I teams (out of 363) without a win this season. They’re in the 300s in offensive and defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and experience (all KenPom numbers).

While this game doesn’t line up as a pushover — the Bulldogs gave South Carolina all it could handle in a season-opening 80-77 result — it’s one that shouldn’t play out as closely as Wake’s last three games have.

The expectation should be that the Deacons cruise; the concern will intensify if they don’t.