Published Nov 27, 2024
Preview: No. 18 Florida vs. Wake Forest
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Deacons head to Florida, to face Florida, in peculiar spot

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At 6-1, only 10 teams in the country have won more games than Wake Forest.

And the Deacons have dropped from No. 44 to 100 in KenPom’s rankings since the season started.

(These numbers are as of Wednesday night, so some things might be altered by the time you’re reading.)

It makes for a complicated way to talk about Wake’s start to the season.

Wake Forest hasn’t taken a loss that’s going to cripple its résumé. The Deacons have a neutral-court win over a Michigan team that just beat Xavier — the team that beat Wake Forest — to go to 6-1 with three Power-5 wins.

And yet, it’s hard to feel good about any of Wake’s wins other than that Michigan conquest. Maybe “good” is the wrong term; less-than-impressive might be a better way to put it. The Deacons were pushed to the brink by USC Upstate; they haven’t made shots with regularity; they’ve had to address some turnover and defensive rebounding issues.

The Deacons are missing Omaha Biliew because of an aggravation of the foot injury he needed surgery to address in the spring. They’ll continue missing him until sometime in January, and that’s if things progress as expected.

Wake Forest has missed senior center Efton Reid III for pretty much the last two games — he played six minutes last week against Western Carolina and missed Saturday’s win over Detroit Mercy because of a migraine. He traveled with the Deacons, so it figures he could return for Thursday’s game.

Only the game at Xavier has cost the Deacons in the loss column — so far. With either three of the next four games, or four straight, against power-conference teams, it doesn’t bode well for them.

Unless Wake Forest raises its level of play.

Here’s what to know ahead of Thursday’s game:

Time: 2:30 p.m. (roughly, as there is a game before this one).

Location: State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, Fla.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Kevin Fitzpatrick (play-by-play) and Daymeon Fishback (analyst).

Series; last meeting: Florida leads 7-6; Wake Forest won 82-71 in the ACC-SEC Challenge last year, getting 24 points from Hunter Sallis.

Records: Florida 6-0; Wake Forest 6-1.

Stat to watch: 31.6% | 29.1%.

The first one is Florida’s 3-point percentage this season; the second one is Wake Forest’s.

So, as cold as the Deacons have been, it’s not as if the Gators have been torching the nets.

Florida has three players taking the majority of its 3-point shots — Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard. Martin is actually shooting a better percentage (37.2% to 33.8%) this year than last year for FAU, but Clayton has been a little off (34.1%, would be lowest of his four-year career) and Richard is ice cold (25%, shot 34.5% last year and 39.8% the season before).

Wake Forest, as you probably know, is waiting on a few of its snipers to heat up. Parker Friedrichsen made 50 3-pointers as a 36.5% shooter last season; he’s 6-for-29 this season and hasn’t made a 3-pointer in five of Wake’s seven games. Sallis went from shooting 40.5% last season to 31.4% so far this year; Cameron Hildreth’s wrist saga is well-documented and he’s gone from 35.1% last season to 5-for-22 this year (22.7%).

The question — or basically, the part to watch here — is whether either team catches fire from long range.

Or if both do.

EvanMiya lineup note: Plus-minus tracking.

Like most stats, plus-minus can be misleading and should never be taken as the single-most defining way of measuring a player’s importance.

It can provide some useful insight, though.

Wake’s plus-minus leader is Davin Cosby Jr., at plus-54, per EvanMiya.

Sallis is plus-42 in second, and Tre’Von Spillers is plus-41. But it’s the Alabama transfer who leads the category; which makes sense considering he leads Wake Forest with 17 3-pointers and has the lowest turnover rate on the team (4.4, per KenPom).

Of the 10 Deacons who have been on the court for at least 50 possessions, only one has a negative rating; Ty-Laur Johnson is minus-2.

Gator to watch: Guard Alijah Martin (No. 15).

It’s kind of a coin flip as to which volume-scoring guard takes over a game and this is the hot-hand pick.

Martin spent the last four seasons at FAU and made the 4ish-hour trip from Boca Raton to Gainesville to finish his career. Last year for the Owls, he had six games of at least 20 points; and 11 games scoring single digits.

He was steadier in Florida’s first five games, never scoring more than 17, never less than nine.

The 6-2, 210-pounder erupted in the last game, though, to the tune of 32 points, nine rebounds, five assists and one turnover against Southern Illinois. Martin was 0-for-6 on 3s in his first game for Florida, made eight across the next four, and then was 8-for-13 against the Salukis.

It’s a 1-A and 1-B situation with Martin and Clayton, as far as who Wake Forest has to stop defensively, and Martin is 1-A considering the Gators’ last game.

Deacon to watch: Guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).

When in doubt, pick the best player for the big game.

Wake’s senior guard is coming off his own 30-piece — 31, to be exact. Sallis was pretty much the only Deacon who had a good offensive game against Detroit Mercy last weekend, making 12 of 18 shots, dishing out four assists.

A similar performance would go a long way toward Wake Forest pulling off the upset here.

Sallis is coming off his best 3-point shooting performance of the season, 5-for-9 against the Titans. He’s growing into his role as the Deacons’ primary ball-handler and initiator and this will be one of the best tests for him this season.

What’s on deck: This is an easy one, as this is the ESPN Events Invitational.

The winner of this game will play the winner between the earlier game in the day, Minnesota-Wichita State. The Gophers have started 5-1, play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and haven’t played a power-conference team yet; the Shockers are 5-0 with three single-digit wins and also haven’t played a power-five team.

Friday’s consolation game will be at 1 p.m., and the winners will meet at 3:30.

KenPom prediction: Florida wins 79-69.

What a Wake Forest loss looks like: This probably starts with one of Florida’s two guards exploding offensively. If Martin or Clayton gets going (or both), the Gators could run away from the Deacons.

Otherwise, a Wake Forest loss probably has a lot of the same elements that have been concerning. Those would be a turnover rate north of 20%, or a paltry defensive rebounding rate that would lead to a bunch of second-chance opportunities for Florida.

And, of course, Wake Forest probably can’t survive a sixth game of shooting 30% or worse from behind the 3-point arc.

What a Wake Forest win looks like: Starting where that one left off, it still feels like the Deacons are going to catch fire with long-range shooting and put up a big number.

Maybe that happens with their second game out of the state.

That’s not the lone requirement of a Wake Forest win, though. If the Deacons can muddy-up the game and make a Florida team that’s scored over 80 points in every game impatient and frustrated, they can win a low-scoring affair.

It was a good enough formula to work against Michigan and could pay off again here.