Deacons can get back on track with rekindling of basketball rivalry against App State
This feels like an any-port-in-a-storm game for Wake Forest, which has lost back-to-back games after entering halftime with leads of seven and eight points.
A win against Appalachian State on Wednesday night would be a step toward steadying the ship.
“I’ve gotta do a good job of teaching and motivating,” coach Steve Forbes said after Saturday’s two-point loss to LSU. “I was a lot more positive (Saturday) than probably last week, just because they are younger and teams are going to keep coming at them.”
It’s the first time Wake Forest has lost consecutive games in which it led at halftime since January of 2020, when the Deacons lost three straight such games. Wake Forest outscored Clemson and LSU by a combined 74-59 in the last two first halves, and was outscored by a collective 90-53 in the second halves.
All three of Wake’s losses, tossing in the Loyola Marymount overtime loss in Jamaica, share the theme of blown second-half leads. The Deacons were up eight on the Lions with less than two minutes left before faltering in that one.
The tricky part is that between the Loyola Marymount loss and the past two games, the Deacons played marvelously down the stretch of a 78-75 win at Wisconsin.
“I felt really good when we had blown the lead against Loyola Marymount, but then had come back and beat Wisconsin,” Forbes said. “We finished the game right. So it felt like we learned, you know?”
It’s also the first time the men’s teams from Wake Forest and App State have met on a basketball court since November of 2006, when Kyle Visser had 17 points and 10 rebounds and a freshman named Ishmael Smith supplied 14 points and eight assists.
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Here’s what to know ahead of Wednesday night’s game:
Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Joel Coliseum.
TV: ACC Network.
Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play) and Dan Bonner (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Wake Forest leads 20-0; Wake Forest won 88-78 in 2006.
Records: Appalachian State 6-4; Wake Forest 7-3.
Stat to watch, Part I: Plus-19 | Minus-22.
App State is 6-4 and lets throw two of the wins; the season opener was a 142-74 defeat of Warren Wilson (a Division III team, not just one guy named Warren), and the Mountaineers’ most-recent game was a 103-43 bashing of Carlow (an NAIA team, not just one guy named Carlow).
Other than the two blowouts of non-Division I teams, App State hasn’t played a game decided by more than nine points.
Among the Mountaineers’ wins includes a five-point overtime win against N.C. Central and a one-point win at Louisville. An 83-74 win over Southeastern Louisiana was comfortable, followed by a four-point win over East Tennessee State.
The Mountaineers lost to Furman, the only opponent other than Wake Forest in the KenPom top 100, by a 65-61 — trailing by 13 at halftime, taking a five-point lead with six minutes left, and being outscored 13-4 to end the game. Campbell (63-58), Kennesaw State (71-67) and Charlotte (71-62) also dealt App State close losses.
So the stats are App State’s margin of victory in those four wins, and its margin of defeat in the four losses. What it tells you is that the Mountaineers — for better or worse — have a tendency of keeping things tight.
(App State has a third non-Division I game this weekend, against Regent, which isn’t even in the NCAA; it’s a member of the NCCAA, which is in the National Christian College Athletic Association.)
Stat to watch, Part II: 42.1% | 46.2%.
The first number is the percentage of shots App State takes that are 3-pointers; the second is the percentage of shots Wake Forest gives up that are 3-pointers.
Of the 10 players who make up App State’s rotation, seven of them have attempted double-digit 3-pointers this season; six have taken more than 20.
App State runs a five-out offense and isn’t afraid to fire early and often from behind the arc. The 42.1% of field goals attempted being 3-pointers is the 83rd highest in the country (per KenPom entering Monday’s games).
Wake Forest has shown it will give up some outside shots, too.
That 46.2% clip for the Deacons’ defense is the 18th-highest clip in the country.
Some clarification: It’s not an immediate red flag for a team’s defense if it gives up a high percentage of 3s. Houston sports the second-best defensive efficiency rating (83.6) and 45.8% of the shots it allows are 3s. The difference is whether you can make your opponents miss on a high percentage of those shots.
Teams have been making the Deacons pay from beyond the arc.
Wake’s past four opponents are 44 of 106 on 3-pointers, a 41.5% clip. Loyola Marymount and Clemson took more 3s than 2s in wins against the Deacons earlier this season, while LSU took 12 more 2s than 3s. But the Tigers (from the Bayou, not S.C.) became the fifth team in the past seven games to make double-digit 3-pointers against the Deacons, going 10-for-26.
App State is going to launch 3s against Wake Forest; the Deacons’ defensive game plan starts with contesting more shots and making it difficult for the Mountaineers to get open looks.
Mountaineer to watch: Forward CJ Huntley (No. 15).
It’s not going to take App State too long in film study to see why LSU center KJ Williams was 7-for-9 on 3-pointers in Saturday’s game against Wake Forest.
Here come the pick-and-pops, and App State is likely to use a 6-11, 221-pounder who’s shooting 42.9% on 3s this season to execute them.
Huntley isn’t one of the three Mountaineers averaging double-figure scoring — that’s Donovan Gregory, Tyree Boykin and Terence Harcum — but he’s scoring 9.7 per game and has scored 33 points in the last three games, shooting a combined 5-for-9 on 3s.
Huntley is also second on the team in rebounding (5.2 per game) and second in steals (10), and he’s attempted 11 more 3s than 2-pointers.
Sidenote: Huntley attended Davidson Day, which Wake Forest fans should be familiar with as the school that produced Cade Carney and Sam Hartman — until it shuttered its championship-caliber football program after the 2016 season.
Deacon to watch: Forward Andrew Carr (No. 11).
The Delaware transfer had a season-high 17 points against Hampton 2½ weeks ago and never scored fewer than nine points in any of Wake’s first seven games.
In the last three games, Carr has a combined 12 points, along with seven turnovers and 12 fouls.
If it’s not obvious: The Deacons need more out of a player who’s played the third-most minutes on the team, and is one of two to have started every game.
Maybe it bodes well for Carr — and the rest of Wake’s frontcourt — that in App State’s last game against a Division I team, Charlotte’s starting forwards combined for 20 points and a 4-for-8 clip on 3s.
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 77-64.
Deacons Illustrated prognosis: There’s kind of a weird feeling for this one.
I don’t think it’s an oversell to call this a must-win game, based on both how Wake’s last two games have gone and based on the upcoming schedule. Wake’s next four games will see road trips to Rutgers and North Carolina, sandwiching home games against Duke and Virginia Tech.
The win at Wisconsin shows that Wake Forest is capable of winning any of those four games; the past two losses seem to illustrate that the Deacons could lose any of those four games, too.
It’s a precarious spot for the Deacons to be in.
They’ll feel at least marginally better about it if they can handle App State.