Published Nov 6, 2023
My Take, film review: Duke 24, Wake Forest 21
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Breaking down the 16 most-important plays from Thursday night’s game

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Wake Forest has now won an ACC game with its third-string QB in the final seconds and lost an ACC game to a third-string QB in the final seconds.

When it’s going bad, it can go all the way bad.

Wake Forest did plenty of good things and it unraveled along the way, spiraling into a final-play loss to Duke and guaranteeing the Deacons their third losing ACC record in the last four seasons.

Here is a breakdown of the 16 most-important plays from Thursday night’s final-seconds loss:

1. First sack

Pre-snap situation: 0-0 | 14:01, first quarter | WF ball | First-and-10 from own 40.

Momentum check: It’s the third play of the game and WF already has a first down.

Play result: Mitch Griffis sacked by Terry Moore for a 7-yard loss.

Breaking it down: Griffis wants to go to Taylor Morin as his hot route.

The ball isn’t thrown there because, as the tweet below says, he’s got a tight end running in front of the route (don’t think that’s supposed to happen) and because there’s a linebacker underneath.

I still think there’s a throwing lane to Morin’s outside shoulder, but that’s clouded by Cameron Hite’s route.

This is one of those sacks that has no bearing on the offensive line. What’s curious is that running back Justice Ellison is sent into a pass pattern — which is why a six-man rush has more rushers than WF has blockers.

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2. First conversion

Pre-snap situation: 0-0 | 8:19, first quarter | WF ball | Third-and-4 from Duke’s 38.

Momentum check: WF mustering the first significant drive of this game.

Play result: Demond Claiborne runs for 10-yard gain.

Breaking it down: This play is so well-blocked. Don’t get me wrong, it’s good patience and acceleration by Claiborne; but the main reason this play is successful is because of the blocking.

It’s worth remembering George Sell was on par with Luke Petitbon to be a contributor as a second-year player before their torn ACLs in 2021. Sell’s recovery took longer than Petitbon’s, but his pancake of a linebacker here (Sell is No. 77) is impressive.

Hite does a great job on the backside linebacker. Spencer Clapp and Michael Jurgens have their assignments, and it leaves Matt Gulbin and DeVonte Gordon to double-team Duke’s best lineman, DeWayne Carter.

This is also — I think — an example of running a simplified offense than what WF was trying to do with Griffis earlier in the season. There’s no read here, it’s a handoff all the way. Here’s the My Take on that.

Sidenote: Does feel that WF running backs are pounding the ground after their runs because they lose their footing more often than anyone else in college football?

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3. Strip-sack

Pre-snap situation: 7-0 WF | 6:28, first quarter | Duke ball | Third-and-9 from own 26.

Momentum check: WF has a 7-point lead and Duke has 8 yards.

Play result: Grayson Loftis sacked by Jasheen Davis, loses a fumble, Davis recovers.

Breaking it down: This is a great play by Davis.

He’s getting ridden past the QB but has enough upper body strength and awareness to reach out and pop the ball loose. The recovery might honestly be the more-impressive part of this play, as he kind of torques his body to fall on the fumble.

As it says below, this play moved Davis into a tie for fifth on Wake’s all-time sacks list.

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4. Tied game

Pre-snap situation: 7-0 WF | 14:28, second quarter | Duke ball | First-and-10 from Wake’s 32.

Momentum check: Duke just got its first big offensive play, Jaquez Moore’s 25-yard run.

Play result: Moore runs for a 32-yard touchdown.

Breaking it down: First issue for Wake’s defense that I see is an overcommitment to the outside by Chelen Garnes and Dylan Hazen.

Now, it’s not their fault that when Moore cuts it back, there’s nobody home.

There could’ve been a hold called in the middle against Justin Pickett, who gets his arm up on Kevin Pointer Jr. But he’s hardly the only Deacon who had a shot against Moore.

Jacob Roberts needed to be harder to block than he makes it for the right tackle. Malik Mustapha and Caelen Carson fail to bring Moore down in the second level.

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5. Swing momentum, swing

Pre-snap situation: 7-7 | 9:50, second quarter | Duke ball | First-and-10 from own 27.

Momentum check: Duke just stuffed a fourth-and-1 rush attempt.

Play result: Loftis intercepted by Quincy Bryant.

Breaking it down: Pointer has one season of eligibility left and I’m genuinely curious whether Wake Forest will have him next season.

He’s been everything that Wake Forest has needed him to be this season. That means he’s been stout against the run, he’s rushed the passer, and he’s been an iron man of a defensive tackle, having played 83.1% of Wake’s defensive snaps (498 of 599, per PFF).

Everything about this play is made possible by Pointer’s penetration and hitting Loftis as he’s throwing, resulting in the lame duck pass that’s picked off by Bryant.

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6. Wake Forest capitalizes

Pre-snap situation: 7-7 | 8:16, second quarter | WF ball | First-and-goal from Duke’s 8.

Momentum check: After the wild swings of a few minutes ago, WF positioned to take the lead.

Play result: Griffis runs for an 8-yard touchdown.

Breaking it down: I think this is another example of simplifying the offense.

It’s a straight QB keeper (it’s not even a draw, as there’s no fake of throwing). No zone-read or slow-mesh element to it. It’s well-blocked and well-read, with Jurgens pulling from center and kicking out the safety, and Clapp and Sell making nice blocks.

Now, the question I can’t answer without getting off-the-record input from the staff is whether Griffis has the authority to change the call when he sees the safety, Jaylen Stinson, ready to blitz off of the left edge. The video picks up as Claiborne is shifting from that side to the other side of Griffis; if you told me Griffis tweaks the call when he reads safety blitz, it wouldn’t be surprising.

Stepping back to big picture: I think if you got an honest answer from either Dave Clawson or Warren Ruggiero on what their biggest regret of this season has been, it’s trying to run the same complicated reads that worked with an experienced QB and experience surrounding him in the last two seasons.

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7. Key third down

Pre-snap situation: 14-7 WF | 7:01, second quarter | Duke ball | Third-and-1 from own 34.

Momentum check: Wake Forest just reestablished its 7-point lead.

Play result: Jordan Waters runs for 24-yard gain.

Breaking it down: It’s always the first third down after you’ve scored a turnover that winds up being the critical one, seemingly no matter what else happens on the drive.

This is the third play of what turns into a 14-play, 75-yard drive that ties the score.

It’s not like there’s a blown opportunity; Mustapha is actually headed to the hole that Waters is supposed to take this carry. That’s where this becomes the cliché of “those guys are on scholarship, too,” with Waters bouncing it for a big play.

But if Kendron Wayman doesn’t get washed down the line and Bryant doesn’t get caught inside, it’s a gain of maybe 3-5 yards instead of 24.

Those are the little details within a game that get you beat.

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8. Tied again

Pre-snap situation: 14-7 WF | 1:02, second quarter | Duke ball | Second-and-goal from Wake’s 4.

Momentum check: Duke has marched down the field with an impressive response after going down by a touchdown, with three third-down conversions.

Play result: Waters runs for 4-yard touchdown.

Breaking it down: This one looks pretty simple to me.

(insert joke about how wrong I probably am)

Evan Slocum and Jacob Roberts both seem to think they’re responsible for the QB, which is why neither of them slides over to the middle for the inside run. It happens. It happens more often at the end of a 7-minute drive in which you’ve given up a few third-down conversions.

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9. Win third down, win the game

Pre-snap situation: 14-14 | 10:42, third quarter | WF ball | Third-and-1 from Duke’s 18.

Momentum check: An offside call just nullified a turnover by Griffis, and the Deacons are in Duke’s red zone for the fourth time in their last six complete possessions.

Play result: Justice Ellison tackled by DeWayne Carter for a 3-yard loss.

Breaking it down: Wake Forest gets a reprieve with the offside call, or else it would’ve been three second-half turnovers by Griffis.

I mean … with all due respect, how much more of a breakdown of this play do you want other than what the tweet says?

Jurgens is the only lineman who looks like he “wins” his matchup on this play. Sell gets blown up by one of the best defensive tackles in the ACC, and that’s who makes the stop. But Wake’s tackles get stood up by the ends and there’s just nothing here.

I’ve got no idea what to make of the conversation between Griffis and Clawson that’s shown on the sideline. I wouldn’t call it heated. It might be as simple as a misread from earlier in the possession. It doesn’t look like there’s anything to misread on the third-down play.

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10. Coverage breakdown

Pre-snap situation: 14-14 | 6:56, third quarter | WF ball | Second-and-10 from own 36.

Momentum check: Idling a bit, but WF has been the better team and doesn’t have a lead to show for it.

Play result: Griffis pass to Taylor Morin for 61 yards.

Breaking it down: So how much did you freak out about this ball being underthrown?

On one hand, I get it. If it’s thrown farther, it’s a touchdown — and there’s no need for another three plays to be run, the consternation of taking a false start at the 1-yard line, and Griffis going airborne at the goal line.

You ever heard of the golf saying, “Never up, never in,” though?

It refers to putting and it’s a way of saying no putt ever left short goes in the hole. In other words, only putts that are hit with enough speed have a chance of going in. (I don’t wholly believe in it, but I digress)

I kind of think Wake’s theory on deep passes is the opposite, i.e., no overthrown deep ball is ever caught. But underthrown deep balls are caught when receivers adjust accordingly and while not germane to this throw, I always feel like you’re more likely to draw a pass interference call on an underthrown ball.

So, just a little background. It’s a great play because of the result; it doesn’t happen on an overthrown ball.

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11. Elway-esque

Pre-snap situation: 14-14 | 4:42, third quarter | WF ball | Third-and-goal from Duke’s 5.

Momentum check: Wake Forest on the doorstep but third-and-goal from the 5 isn’t an easy conversion.

Play result: Griffis scrambles for a 5-yard touchdown run.

Breaking it down: Man, it’s all right here. If you stop watching right now, Wake Forest wins by a touchdown, Griffis has this great play and moment, he’s 12-for-12 without a turnover … yeesh.

Just kind of hard to separate what he looked like in the first 40 minutes of this game and what I know is coming in the last 20.

Setting that aside, this is a hell of a play. If I’m seeing where Griffis’ head is going, he sees that Ke’Shawn Williams to the back corner is covered and that Morin over the middle is covered. Then he feels the rush around him and takes off, plants hard for a cut against a linebacker (Tre Freeman) who’s an emerging star, and goes up and over for a touchdown like John Elway in the Super Bowl (except that wasn’t a touchdown).

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12. When helicoptering goes wrong

Pre-snap situation: 21-14 WF | 15:00, fourth quarter | WF ball | Third-and-5 from own 49.

Momentum check: After WF takes the lead, Deacons get the ball back around midfield. Feels like a game Duke can’t win if it’s behind by two scores in the fourth quarter.

Play result: Griffis scrambles and fumbles, recovered by Duke’s Aeneas Peebles.

Breaking it down: Simplest play to review, huh?

Hardly.

This job sucks sometimes. Do I crush the kid trying to make a play for his team, and trying to repeat something that just worked 5 minutes ago? Do I make excuses for Griffis, even though a player with his football IQ has to know better than put the ball in harm’s way with a one-score lead in the fourth quarter?

Both, I guess.

If nothing else, Griffis has heart. That’s got to be a helpless feeling to go up in the air like this, and he’s obviously not the biggest player on the field.

It’s just unnecessary. You’re up seven, ball at midfield, the whole fourth quarter to play. Duke has all of 29 passing yards in the game and in the last quarter, has 17 yards on 12 plays. The game is still in control if you don’t convert this third down because you can pin Duke deep in its own territory.

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13. Tied again (again)

Pre-snap situation: 21-14, WF | 11:47, fourth quarter | Duke ball | First-and-10 from Wake’s 29.

Momentum check: This possession started at midfield and Duke just benefited from an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against Wake’s Aiden Hall.

Play result: Loftis passes to Jordan Moore for a 29-yard touchdown.

Breaking it down: Self-destruction is in full affect here.

Hall’s penalty comes on the play before this one and that was, as Clawson said, a selfish penalty. He didn’t like being taken to the ground with some extra physicality.

I’m not sure how DaShawn Jones gets no help in the middle of the field when it’s drop-8 coverage. It looks like Wake’s safeties split to the edges and leave the middle of the field — somebody more educated in defensive football can educate me if that’s supposed to happen or not.

Edit to add: Replay is a wonderful thing (not replay review, just replays within the broadcast). Nick Andersen was the safety to the field and came up too far on intermediate crossing patterns. Don’t think this was on Jones.

(How many times have you read me saying sometimes it’s not the fault of the DB closest to the play on a coverage bust?)

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14. You're welcome, part I

Pre-snap situation: 21-21 | 4:22, fourth quarter | WF ball | First-and-10 from Duke’s 40.

Momentum check: Wake Forest just converted a third down and is marching for a go-ahead score.

Play result: Griffis pass intercepted by Ryan Smith.

Breaking it down: The most interesting part of this play is Griffis’ decision to wear a glove.

Clawson said in the post-game presser that he had a glove because he was struggling to grip the ball, which is obvious. This is the only drive in which Griffis is wearing the glove.

Sometimes, all of the best questions come after your chance to make them. Had he practiced much with the glove on? Was this ball slipping out of his hand the same issue as pre-glove? Or did he try to pull back on a deep throw too late?

Alas.

The theme of breaking down Griffis’ turnovers has become, “you feel for the kid, it’s not for lack of trying, he’s dealing with a loss of confidence, but the mistakes just have to stop.”

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15. You’re welcome, part II

Pre-snap situation: 21-21 | 2:12, fourth quarter | Duke ball | Third-and-13 from own 34.

Momentum check: Duke got the turnover, but faces third-and-long because of a first-down holding call.

Play result: Loftis’ pass incomplete; pass interference called against DaShawn Jones, 15-yard penalty and first down.

Breaking it down: It’s not just the penalty that crushes you.

It’s that Jones doesn’t have to do this.

He plays the man instead of the ball. It’s easy for me to write three days later but he’s got to have awareness that in this situation, any contact he makes with Jordan Moore is going to be sold.

You never want to leave things in the hands of the officials.

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16. You’re welcome, part III

Pre-snap situation: 21-21 | 0:59, fourth quarter | Duke ball | Second-and-8 from Wake’s 38.

Momentum check: Duke has methodically moved to the edge of kicker Todd Pelino’s range with one minute left.

Play result: Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8-yard gain; Jones called for unnecessary roughness and additional 15 yards.

Breaking it down: It’s understandable that Jones is frustrated after the pass interference but man, he goes and metastasizes his mistake with this penalty.

Once you get past the surface level reaction, maybe the most disappointing part of this is Wake Forest played a game in the past month (Virginia Tech) when this tackle was flagged. It’s not like this is a new rule.

I loathe the internet’s “be better” phrase — it’s trite — but it winds up being the only thing left to say with this play.

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And that’s the last one. Everything else seems routine. As Clawson said after the game, Wake Forest gave this game away.