Wake Forest and Pittsburgh last played football against each other at the end of the 2018 season, with Pitt's then-sophomore quarterback throwing for a career-high 316 yards and three touchdowns against the Deacons.
My, how Kenny Pickett has evolved since then.
To catch us up on Pickett's growth and other things on the Panthers, we reached out to Panther-Lair's Jim Hammett.
Here's our Q&A with Jim:
1. Since this feels like the Paul Rudd "Look at us; who would've thought" GIF in ACC football form, how realistic did you think this was for Pitt entering the season and what has gone better than expected, if anything, for Pitt?
I thought in the preseason Pitt would have a pretty good team. Was I expecting Pitt to be 10-2 at this juncture, the highest-ranked team in the league, with a Heisman Trophy candidate?
Well, no.
Pitt was picked fourth in the ACC Coastal in the preseason, but I think the internal feeling in the program was that they would be better than that. Once Kenny Pickett opted to return to the team last December, there was a feeling that 2021 had a chance to be a good season with a roster loaded with seniors.
The main thing for Pitt was that the offense in the prior two seasons under offensive coordinator Mark Whipple just never seemed to click for four quarters in a game. They had their moments and Pickett had some big games in 2019 and 2020, but it seemed they always lacked playmakers and an offensive line capable of giving them room to operate.
Pitt’s offensive line has been excellent this season. The running game, which has been a disaster in recent seasons, has been much improved, and they have weapons on the outside. It all came together to the tune of Pitt being ranked fourth nationally in both yards and points per game.
2. I want to throw a curveball here and start on defense: Is it fair to say this unit is clicking at the right time? I know the Western Michigan and Miami games were rough, but holding UNC to 23 points and shutting down Sean Tucker last weekend are impressive to me -- and they're things Wake's defense didn't come close to doing.
Pitt’s defense does some things very well, but the area they struggle in sort of overshadows the rest.
I’ll start with the good: Pitt’s whole defensive philosophy is to stop the run. Period. Pitt is fifth in the country in rush defense, giving up only 92.7 yards per game. Slowing down Tucker was impressive, but Syracuse ran an offense that fell right into how Pitt liked to play.
Pitt is also very good at rushing the passer. The Panthers are second in the country in sacks with 46 this season. They’ve been in the top-2 of that category nationally the past two seasons as well. It’s just how they play. Pitt is aggressive in the front seven. First-team All-ACC pick Calijah Kancey, and second team selection Haba Baldonado form a solid 1-2 punch up front with some veteran linebackers behind them that like to get after the quarterback.
Now we can talk about the team’s 112th ranked pass defense.
Pitt plays very aggressive up front, and they can be gotten to on deep passes with the defensive backs playing on islands. Throw in that the ACC seems to be the conference of quarterbacks this year and it’s made for a tough season for this group.
The Panthers are also so aggressive against the run, that RPOs give them a lot of trouble and Western Michigan was the first team to really exploit that this year with quick slants and releases to the tight end in the seams.
In some respects there are schematic holes in Pitt’s defense, but at the same time they pride themselves on what they do anyway. Pat Narduzzi always says they want teams to be one dimensional, and that’s certainly true by definition, but it’s to the extreme. Pitt can win a game giving up a bunch of yards as they have done multiple times this season.
The key stats are that they are top-10 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, so they can get you behind the sticks, and they are also seventh nationally on third down defense. Pitt’s style is to step up on third down and in the red zone, true to form of a bend, but don’t break defense.
3. One of my favorite Kenny Pickett tidbits is that in his first 19 games, he threw for 300 yards once -- in his 2018 visit to Winston-Salem (for reference, he's gone over 300 eight times this season). Is it as simple as Pat Narduzzi made it sound Sunday, that Pickett has simply evolved as the offense has shifted and he's gotten more playmakers -- or has he improved that much over four seasons?
It’s a combination of everything. In Pickett’s first year as a starter, Pitt had two 1,000-yard running backs and he played a role of game manager.
Ahead of the 2019 season, Narduzzi brought in Whipple to wake up the passing game. That season Pickett just seemed to throw it for the sake of throwing it. He probably didn’t have the weapons to pass as much as they did, but they also didn’t have that same rushing attack anymore either.
In 2020, there were glimpses of what we have seen this season, but Pickett got injured midway through the year and missed some time. It’s just been taken to a whole new level this season.
I think you are seeing an offense with a lot of weapons. Wide receiver Jordan Addison is one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award and leads the country in receiving touchdowns with 17. Pitt’s two tight ends this year — Lucas Krull and Gavin Bartholomew — have caught 61 passes this season, after Pitt tight ends combining for just 10 a season ago.
The running game is considerably better with young guys like Izzy Abanikanda and Rodney Hammond adding a new element to the offense this season.
I think Pickett has experience, weapons at his disposal, and a comfort level in the offense he runs. Aside from that, he’s just gotten better on a personal level. He has improved his completion rate and his pocket awareness is much better. He was maybe a 6th-round pick had he left Pitt a year ago, and now there are talks of him being the first quarterback taken in the upcoming NFL Draft.
It has been an absolute rise of epic proportions to go from a late-round pick to a Heisman contender in one season, and while a lot of his supporting cast has gotten better, this season has largely been about the improvement of Pickett on his own.
4. The numbers indicate Pitt only runs the ball out of necessity -- given Wake Forest struggles against the run, do you think we see more of an emphasis on the ground?
I think Pitt can run the ball a bit, but as I’ve watched this team this year, especially in recent games they’re going to keep the ball in Pickett’s hands more often than not. Pitt had some chances to sit on the lead against Virginia and North Carolina and maybe run some clock, but they kept throwing because that is what they do best.
Having said that, earlier in the season Pitt was really good at building big leads and sitting on them in the fourth quarter. Pitt possessed the ball in the fourth quarter for 10-plus minutes in wins over Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Duke. So when they commit to the run, they are capable and they have some backs that can make plays.
The leading rusher is Izzy Abanikanda. The sophomore has 580 yards and five touchdowns and has 23 catches for 200 yards. He’s also returned a kick for a touchdown this season, so he is a dynamic player. Abanikanda got injured early in the second half against Virginia, and did not travel to Syracuse so his status may be up in the air for Saturday.
Veteran Vincent Davis led the team in rushing last season, and has come on strong the past two weeks. He has 511 yards on the season and is a reliable player and even for being the smallest back they have, he is able to get tough yardage.
The third back Pitt will use is true freshman Rodney Hammond. He has led the team in rushing four times this season and posted 66 yards against Clemson -- all in the fourth quarter. He’s another smaller back, but probably the most physical runner Pitt has.
So Pitt has three solid backs, a history of running out the clock with the lead in the fourth quarter this season, but when it comes game time I expect Pitt will mostly rely on Pickett and Addison to move the ball with the running game mixed in, but certainly not the focus.
5. What needs to go right for Pitt to win this game and, conversely, what can't happen for the Panthers?
I think on offense, Pitt just needs to do what they have been doing all season long. They have a top-five offense in college football, a Heisman Trophy candidate, and arguably the best receiver in the nation. They really haven’t had trouble moving the ball and scoring at all this season when that is clicking.
I think Wake Forest will score points and make big plays, but as long as the defense comes up with some sacks and third down stops, they can survive in a high-scoring game.
I think what Pitt can’t afford is the injury bug to keep hitting them. I mentioned Abanikanda’s status, but Pitt has also been without three wide receivers that were key parts of the offense earlier this season, most notably Taysir Mack. The offensive line has been shuffled in recent weeks, and it came out this week that the flu has hit the locker room as well. Pickett missed Tuesday’s practice, but it appears he will play, but who else had or has it is the question.
As for what happens on the field, Western Michigan and Miami came out and got to the Pitt defense from the start. It put the offense in a tough spot where they couldn’t make mistakes, and that’s what happened.
Pickett posted a school-record 519 yards against Miami, but threw two costly interceptions. They were just at a point where they had to play perfect when they fell behind and they did not.
The key on Saturday will be, as simple as it sounds, to not start slow and spot Wake Forest a two-score lead in the first quarter. The Deacons have the type of offense you don’t want to chase all night from behind.