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Published Oct 2, 2024
Across the Beat: Getting to know N.C. State
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By Conor O’Neill and Jacey Zembal
Rivals.com

As Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson ran through his history against N.C. State on Tuesday afternoon, one thing became evident:

Nobody has dominated this Big 4 rivalry over the past decade.

There have been three-year winning streaks by each; N.C. State from 2014-16, Wake Forest from 2017-19. The Deacons’ win in 2021 put them in the driver’s seat for the ACC Atlantic Division crown, probably the most meaningful meeting of Clawson’s tenure — and of N.C. State coach Dave Doeren’s, who predates Clawson’s arrival in the ACC by one year, both coming from the MAC.

It’s been N.C. State with the upper hand lately, winning each of the last two seasons. Last year’s 26-6 win in Winston-Salem felt more lopsided than the final score indicates.

To learn the essentials about the Wolfpack, we’ve enlisted the help of Jacey Zembal, publisher of Wolfpack Central on the Rivals network.

Here is our five-part Q&A:

1. I like to start these with a simple vibe check. Where do things stand with this N.C. State team?

Answer: The vibe is that the team isn’t where it was expected to be. N.C. State has defeated the three teams it was supposed to beat, though not in spectacular fashion, but the two blowout losses against Clemson and Tennessee proved to be humbling.

As a result, N.C. State has been trying to find its identity, which might be some of the remnants of last week, which was not turn the ball over on offense, play good defense and have quality special teams. N.C. State’s offense has never hit its stride through five games this season.

2. Assuming the QB situation remains static, what steps have you seen from CJ Bailey and what more do you think he’s capable of this season?

Answer: Bailey has the physical tools. He can zip in a 20-yard pass, go deep and can take off and run from time-to-time. At 6-6 or 6-7, it’s a little different being a taller quarterback. He’ll do some direct runs, but he’s better when he can roll out and either throw on the run, or take off with momentum.

Bailey handled himself well against Clemson, but he fumbled after getting drilled from the blindside, and then he had a poor interception, which Tigers freshman cornerback Ashton Hampton returned 53 yards for a touchdown. He didn’t get as many chances against Northern Illinois, and didn’t turn it over once.

3. Kevin Concepcion’s numbers seem headed in the wrong direction. How important is it to N.C. State’s offense that he gets more involved?

Answer: N.C. State’s offense last year boiled down to Concepcion getting touches, whether with short passes, runs out of the backfield or the occasional shot downfield, combined with then-quarterback Brennan Armstrong using his legs. It was conservative and limited, but some teams struggled to stop it down the stretch — Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and North Carolina.

This year, the expectation was that Concepcion wouldn’t take as many hits this season. He had 71 catches for 839 yards and 10 scores, and 41 carries for 320 yards, and the hits affected him at times.

The carries have been limited to four this season, for minus-one yard, and he has 31 receptions for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Having a 7.8 yards per catch average shows it’s a dose of short pop passes or quick passes mixed in with some throws that net first downs.

The problem is that the other receivers haven’t gotten the ball for whatever reasons. Redshirt freshman wide receiver Noah Rogers has 10 catches for 148 yards, and Wake Forest transfer Wesley Grimes has eight receptions for 95. More was expected going into the season, but that goes back to the previously mentioned item that there isn’t an identity.

4. Northern Illinois only had 3.8 yards per play, far below what the Wolfpack’s first four opponents averaged. Did N.C. State’s defense turn a corner last week?

Answer: The game was physical and NIU mostly ran the football, so it was the perfect chance to see if coach Dave Doeren’s request for more toughness would occur.

Northern Illinois has a veteran offensive line, but N.C. State was able to step up its creative blitzes from its 3-3-5 scheme. Other than senior defensive end Davin Vann, it’s hard for the Wolfpack defensive line to get heat on quarterbacks when it’s three defensive linemen vs. five offensive linemen.

That is where the blitzing makes up for things and that led to senior safety Donovan Kaufman surprising Northern Illinois redshirt junior quarterback Ethan Hampton from the blind side for the sack, forced fumble and recovery for a 2-yard touchdown. Getting four sacks was a big deal for N.C. State — two by linebackers and one apiece by Kaufman and Vann.

Redshirt junior middle linebacker Caden Fordham also proved to be aggressive in filling holes and making tackles against the Northern Illinois run game. The Huskies aren’t a great passing game, and that’s why they’ve struggled to score in all but the Western Illinois game.

5. Not to repeat Question 1, but looking at the rest of N.C. State’s schedule, it looks … manageable. What preseason goals are off the table and what can still be realistically accomplished this year?

Answer: Technically, none of the preseason goals are truly off the table. N.C. State will need someone to defeat the undefeated teams ahead of them, but it can still make the playoffs if it wins the ACC Championship.

It won’t make the playoffs as an at large team even if closes out the season with seven straight wins and reached the ACC title game (and then loses). The damage of allowing 110 points against Clemson and Tennessee and having backups play the majority of the second half can’t get be undone.

Winning 10 games has only happened once all-time at NC State, and that goal is still lurking out there for the Wolfpack with eight games likely remaining.

N.C. State is favored against Wake Forest, and maybe it will be favored against Stanford at home and at North Carolina, if the Tar Heels continue to fall apart. The games vs. Syracuse, at California, vs. Duke and at Georgia Tech are toss-up contests at this point.

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