Without definitive confirmation, the stakes feel the same.

Wake Forest will play North Carolina in a quarterfinal game of the ACC tournament on Thursday afternoon. It’s the 5-seed against the 4-seed, the former being the Tar Heels, who beat Notre Dame on Wednesday.

A year ago, it was fifth-seeded Wake Forest beating Notre Dame to reach this game in the tournament bracket — an eventual loss to Pittsburgh.

That game last year had the feeling of a play-in game for an NCAA tournament bid. Pitt’s shot at an at-large bid was thwarted because of several bid stealers from mid-major leagues.

This year, UNC and Wake Forest appear to be firmly on the bubble. The winner gets a boost and almost assuredly a shot to upset No. 1 Duke, which plays Georgia Tech in the early on Thursday.

The loser between UNC and Wake Forest won’t need to make plans to watch Selection Sunday together.

Here’s what to know ahead of Thursday’s quarterfinal game:

Time: 2:30 p.m. (roughly)

Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Cory Alexander (analyst) and Angel Gray (sidelines).

Series; last meeting: UNC leads 165-70; Wake Forest won 67-66 on Jan. 21 this year, getting 20 points from Cameron Hildreth, 14 from Hunter Sallis, and 12 apiece from Tre'Von Spillers and Efton Reid III.

ACC tournament history: Wake’s last game against UNC in the ACC tournament was a 58-52 win all the way back in 2000. That was also a quarterfinal game and the seeds were reversed, Wake Forest as the No. 5 and UNC as the No. 4. Despite the Deacons’ head-to-head win, UNC went to the NCAA tournament and reached the Final Four as an 8-seed; Wake Forest went to the NIT and won it.

The winner will play: Either 8-seed Georgia Tech or 1-seed Duke at 7 p.m. Friday in a semifinal game.

Records: UNC 21-12; Wake Forest 21-10.

Stat to watch: 6-for-10 | 21-for-27.

If you can make more than twice the free throws your opponent attempts, you’re probably winning a basketball game.

That was the case for Wake Forest in the first meeting with UNC. The Deacons were aggressive in driving the ball and not settling. It helped offset a game in which they were 2-for-15 on 3-pointers.

UNC preferred settling for 3-pointers. The Tar Heels were 8-for-32, one of those makes coming from RJ Davis as the final buzzer sounded. UNC did not attempt a free throw in the second half.

That becomes the intriguing part of this game; Wake Forest has continued making free throws at a decent clip, while UNC is coming off a game in which it was 7-for-12 in a 76-56 win over Notre Dame on Wednesday.

Matchup to watch: UNC’s bigger lineup vs. Wake’s three-guard lineup.

When Wake Forest beat UNC, the Tar Heels’ starting lineup included freshman Ian Jackson and junior Jalen Washington.

They’ve found some late-season momentum after moving both of them to reserve roles.

Instead of Jackson starting in the backcourt alongside Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis, UNC has freshman Drake Powell at the 3-spot and Jae’Lyn Withers playing the 4-position. Ven-Allen Lubin (6-8, 230) replaced Washington (6-10, 235) as the starter at center, a smaller option but quicker and more athletic.

It’s really the changes with Powell and Withers that are germane to this segment.

Powell is a long-armed, 6-6, 195-pounder who’s a lockdown defender. He’s a capable 3-point shooter (33 of 84, 39.3%) and can get downhill as a slashing forward.

Withers is the revelation of late. The fifth-year senior who spent his first three seasons at Louisville — so long ago, he played for Chris Mack — has all of a sudden become a floor-spacing terror for opposing defenses, making 21 3-pointers in UNC’s last eight games. That includes a 7-for-10 clip Wednesday, in a game he also had nine rebounds.

Wake Forest will have to counter with either of its senior guards, Hildreth or Sallis, matched up against Powell. Either would be giving up size, but obviously either of them has the experience advantage over the freshman from Pittsboro.

The Deacons will also counter with their own in-state freshman when Juke Harris matches up against Powell — the two of them have plenty of familiarity.

Where this matchup hinges is Spillers covering a lot of ground. He’ll have to track Withers out to the 3-point line but the Deacons also need him on the interior to be a rim protector and rebounder.

Tar Heel to watch: Guard RJ Davis (No. 4).

All of that discussed above … it’s still Davis’ team.

The fifth-year senior played more of a distributor role Wednesday, with six assists (and one turnover). He did connect on three 3-pointers, meaning he and Withers were a combined 10-for-16 and their teammates were 3-for-12.

Davis typically given the Deacons all sorts of problems as a scorer.

He had 21 points in this year’s game at Wake Forest. Last season, en route to ACC player of the year, he cooked the Deacons for 36 points. In the year before, when the Tar Heels missed the NCAA tournament, he still had 16 points, five rebounds, five assists in a loss at Wake Forest, and scored 27 on 9-for-14 shooting in a win.

In six career games against Wake Forest, Davis is averaging 21.8 points per game.

Deacon to watch: Center Efton Reid III (No. 4).

It’s a matchup of the No. 4s in these player to watch entries.

Wake Forest would probably sign on the dotted line going into this one if Reid could promise a repeat of his numbers against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Those were: 12 points on 5-for-7 shooting, including a couple of made 3s, 13 rebounds (six of them offensive), two steals and two turnovers.

It was the 116th career game of Reid’s and the first time he’s been the KenPom MVP of a game.

UNC has gotten better frontcourt play lately but it’s not like the Tar Heels aren’t marching Tyler Hansborough out there. Reid controlling this game from the interior would go a long way toward a Wake Forest win.

KenPom prediction: UNC wins 77-72.

Injury report: Wake Forest should be OK here. The Deacons benefited from Omaha Biliew’s best game of his injury-plagued season on Saturday, as he had seven points, five rebounds, one assist, one steal and one block in 14 minutes against Georgia Tech.

UNC might have the best injury luck of any team in the ACC. Of the Tar Heels’ eight-man rotation, Seth Trimble missed three games and Jackson and Washington missed a game each. And … that’s it.

All eight Tar Heels who play consistent roles played at least 10 minutes on Wednesday.

What a Wake Forest loss looks like: This probably has more to do with UNC’s offense having success against Wake’s defense than vice versa.

The Tar Heels’ 0.91 points per possession in Winston-Salem was their second-worst offensive game of the season, per KenPom. They’ve been scoring more efficiently — albeit against some of the ACC’s worst defenses — in the past month.

What a Wake Forest win looks like: Well, the result would be Wake Forest playing in the semifinal round of the ACC tournament for the first time in almost two decades.

Wake’s last semifinal appearance was 2006, as a 12-seed in Greensboro.

To get there, the Deacons need to lock down UNC on the defensive end. Wake’s defensive effort in Saturday’s 69-43 thrashing of Georgia Tech saw the Deacons record some of their best stats of the season.

And this will be about Wake’s seniors carrying a heavy load again. Hildreth, Sallis and Reid will need to make big plays down the stretch in what seems destined to be a tight game.

**********

Did you enjoy this story? If so, subscribe to Deacons Illustrated as a premium member to read *every* in-depth, objective, substantive story. Click here, subscribe, and stop missing out!