Published Nov 4, 2021
5 things to know about the opponent: North Carolina
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Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
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Get to know the Tar Heels beyond their preseason top-10 label and disappointing losses

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In a conference that doesn’t lack stories of underachieving teams, Wake Forest stands above the rest.

And this is where the Deacons’ approach of preparing for the best versions of teams can help them in avoiding a pitfall.

North Carolina, at 4-4, has hardly been the top-10 team that was forecast in the beginning of the season – for a multitude of reasons. The Tar Heels lost twice – to Georgia Tech and Florida State – when they were double-digit favorites.

But, again, this is where Wake’s approach of preparing for what a team can be, if everything comes together, should pay off.

“You can quickly see on film why they were a preseason top-10 team,” Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson said. “I say every week that you prepare for what the team is capable of doing.”

Here’s what you need to know about North Carolina ahead of Saturday’s game:

1. Where’s the defense?

North Carolina’s defense was supposed to be good enough, at least early in the season, to allow the Tar Heels’ offense enough time to gel with its new batch of running backs and receivers.

If there’s one way to sum up why this team is 4-4 instead of being close to preseason projections, that’s the one.

The Tar Heels have given up 30.8 points per game, giving them the third-worst scoring defense in the ACC. UNC has been slightly better against the pass (221 yards allowed per game, seventh in ACC) than the rush (175.6, ninth).

UNC has allowed at least 35 points in five of its last six games; Wake Forest is the only team in the country to score at least 35 in every game this season.

2. The other Sam H.

The disappointment of this season has little to do with quarterback Sam Howell (or the next player listed).

The passing numbers – 153-for-242 (63.2%), 2,192 yards, 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions – aren’t as eye-grabbing as those of Brennan Armstrong or Kenny Pickett, or even Wake's QB who's been called "Howell" enough in years past, Sam Hartman.

It’s the rushing numbers – Howell has four 100-yard games this season and if you remove sack yardage, he’s third in the ACC in rushing – that help tell the story of how valuable Howell has been for the Tar Heels.

Plus, it’s what the Deacons, facing Howell for the third year in a row, see from the junior quarterback.

“The thing that’s unique about him is his arm strength and his ability to extend plays,” cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor said. “In the back end, we’ve gotta cover through the whistle for 7 seconds, 8 seconds, all down the field because at any time he can launch the ball 65 yards on a dime.”

Wake Forest defensive coordinator Lyle Hemphill’s evaluation of Howell after the Deacons handed him his first loss in 2019 was that he would keep improving, and his forecast wasn’t wrong.

“He’s one of the toughest football players we’ve watched on film in a long time – that I’ve watched on film in a long time, anyway,” Hemphill said. “He runs like a running back. That’s the one thing, you can just see the strength that he’s gained over the last two years is incredible.

“He’s so strong, and then just his ability to know where to go with the ball is unbelievable. And his ability to get the ball there in a hurry – he’s got elite arm talent.”

3. Josh Downs and Ty Chandler

UNC lost running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, and wide receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, from last year’s team.

Those duos have been replaced by singular stars.

Josh Downs is the leading receiver in the ACC in both catches (70) and yards (979). He’s been especially potent in the last four games, with 32 catches for 527 yards. The second-year receiver has lined up in the slot for 96% of his snaps, and Clawson said he’s probably the best receiver Wake Forest will have faced so far this season.

Ty Chandler is the new face, a transfer running back from Tennessee, who’s scored two touchdowns in each of the last two games.

“Chandler … is certainly one of the top three, four, five backs in the ACC,” Clawson said. “I’d put him right up there with (Syracuse’s Sean) Tucker and (Duke’s Mataeo) Durant in terms of what we’ve defended.”

4. Third-down efficiency

Wake Forest is fifth in the country in third-down conversion rate, at 51.2%, bolstered by a combined 19-for-26 clip (73.1%) in its last two games.

North Carolina is the only other ACC team in the top 10 nationally in third-down conversions, tied with Oklahoma for seventh (49.5%).

If that’s not enough convincing that both of these offenses seem geared up to score on the other’s defense: Wake Forest is 10th in the ACC in opponents’ third-down success rate (40.7%). North Carolina is 11th (41.1%).

5. Part of a difficult closing stretch

You probably know UNC is 4-4, and it’s been a long tumble from being the preseason favorite to win the Coastal Division.

The harrowing part of this for the Tar Heels is that if they don’t find two wins in their final four games, they won’t even make a bowl – and with a game against Wofford still on the schedule, they’ve got one win likely coming.

The other one, though?

Take your pick of where that’s coming.

After UNC plays host to Wake Forest this weekend, the Tar Heels have short week and a Thursday night game at Pittsburgh. After the game against Wofford, UNC ends the regular season with a Friday game at N.C. State – meaning that all three of the ACC’s representatives in the initial College Football Playoff top 25 are on the Tar Heels’ schedule.