Hunter Sallis’ efficiency proves to be exception with a basketball theme
Reports of the mid-range shot’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
At least when Hunter Sallis is taking them.
Wake Forest’s senior guard is going on two seasons of proving that what’s become the most-despised shot in basketball — when it comes to analytics, anyway — isn’t a bad shot when he takes them.
The latest example was Sallis pumping in four of them during his late-game surge Wednesday night against Stanford. Those were part of his 30-point performance.
“When you’ve got a player that can do that, you let him play, right?” coach Steve Forbes said on Wednesday night. “That’s what he’s great at.”
Forbes called Sallis the best player he’s ever coached at getting to his mid-range spots. That roll call includes Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet at Wichita State, along with Acie Law IV of Texas A&M.
It's regardless of evolving pick-and-roll defenses designed to take away open 3s and driving lanes. Sallis' effectiveness from his spots flies in the face of the discussion that offenses should only hunt 3-pointers and layups/dunks.
As far as why he's the exception? It's a simple answer.
"Make them," he said on Wednesday night. "Gotta make them."
The Boston Celtics won last year’s NBA championship by launching 3s; Alabama has become a national power under Nate Oats’ premise that his team only shoots 3s and layups/dunks.
Sallis is shooting 3s better over the last six games. And in fairness, that plus Ty-Laur Johnson’s expanding role means Sallis is freed up to get to his spots.
And hunt.
“He’s not Paul Pierce,” Forbes said of Sallis. “But I always think that about Paul Pierce when I watch him play. He just knew how to get to his spot and he wasn’t missing. … And he’s more comfortable with that, so go do it.”
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:
Time: 2 p.m.
Location: Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, Va.
TV: ACC Network.
Announcers: Anish Shroff (play-by-play) and Scott Williams (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Virginia Tech leads 39-34; VT won 87-76 last season, as the teams split last year’s meetings and each won their home games.
Records: Wake Forest 13-4, 5-1 ACC; VT 8-9, 3-3.
Stats to watch: 20.4% | 21.2%.
The first number is VT’s turnover percentage, which is 320th in the country; the second is Wake’s defensive turnover rate, which is 35th in the country (both numbers per KenPom and entering Friday’s games).
Turning over VT’s mistake-prone offense should lead to some easy buckets for the Deacons.
The Hokies give the ball away more often than any team in the ACC. It’s kind of stunning, since VT ranked fourth and 12th in the country in turnover percentage in two of Mike Young’s first four seasons as coach, and 84th and 86th in the other two. But last season saw VT rank 123rd in turnover percentage and this season, that aspect has nosedived.
Understanding that is pretty simple; the Hokies have been unsettled at point guard. Sean Pedulla transferred to Mississippi after spending the last two seasons at VT’s starter. Sophomore Brandon Rechsteiner has started 14 games this season and has a turnover percentage of 26.4%. Freshman Ben Hammond has played some point guard and his turnover rate is 30.1%.
During Wake’s four-game winning streak, the Deacons have forced at least 13 turnovers in every game. A couple of those came against teams that rank in the top 50 of KenPom in turnover percentage — N.C. State (27th) commits turnovers at a 14.7% clip but it was 20.3% against Wake Forest; Stanford (36th) has a turnover rate of 15.1% but was up to 19.4% against the Deacons.
While those might seem like small margins, it helps illustrate part of why Wake’s offense has found better footing. The Deacons are averaging 12.8 points off turnovers in their last four games.
Matchup to watch: Wake Forest attacking VT’s interior.
If you haven’t noticed: The Deacons are taking fewer 3-pointers.
Part of it has to do with the way they’re being defended. Only taking 11 of them against Stanford — a season low for Wake Forest — had a lot to do with the Cardinal’s ball-screen defense leaving mid-range shots open (hello, Hunter Sallis).
And part of it is the Deacons playing to strengths. For as long as Tre’Von Spillers and Efton Reid III are reliable interior scorers, the ball is going to go to them near the basket.
It’s led to Wake Forest averaging 25 made 2-pointers across the last three games. Twenty-seven against Miami marked a season high, and the Deacons made 26 of them against Stanford.
While you might not bank on that many coming against the Hokies, don’t be surprised if a similar number pops up.
VT allows opponents to make 55.1% of 2-point shots. The Hokies have a block percentage of 5.5%, which is 342nd in the country (per KenPom).
It’s a team that doesn’t offer much resistance at and around the rim. One player — junior forward Tobi Lawal — has double-digit blocks this season, and six of his 13 came in the first three games. VT’s centers are a ground-bound Mylyjael Poteat (6-9, 260) and a raw 7-footer, Patrick Wessler (7-foot, 250).
EvanMiya lineup note: The Ty-Laur Johnson effect.
Now that he’s racking up minutes and possessions, it’s easier to quantify the effect Johnson has had on the Deacons.
Take the top six duos, for example.
According to EvanMiya, four of the top six duos for Wake Forest involve Johnson.
The top combination is Johnson and Reid — scoring 1.21 points per possession when they’re on the court together, and allowing 0.96 ppp. And then it’s a couple of duos involving Spillers, with Juke Harris and Reid.
The following three are Johnson with the other players he’s shared the starting lineup with for the past four games — Sallis, Cameron Hildreth and Spillers.
Hokie to watch: Forward Tobi Lawal (No. 1).
It’s not just that he’s the Hokies’ best shot blocker that makes him the pick here.
He’s their leading scorer (12.6) and rebounder (6.2) and is one of the best athletes in the ACC.
Lawal transferred over from VCU, where he was a key player off the bench last season. The 6-8, 200-pounder from England is probably one of the more underrated newcomers in the ACC this season; he’s one of four ACC players leading his team in scoring and rebounding (BC’s Donald Hand Jr., Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud are the others).
Maybe the most impressive step forward from VCU to VT is Lawal’s 3-point shooting; he was 3-for-7 last season and each of those makes came in November. Lawal has made 13 of 28 3s with the Hokies, and he’s 8-for-13 in ACC games.
This is also a hot-hand pick; Lawal had 22 points on 7-for-10 shooting (3-for-3 on 3s) in Wednesday night’s comeback stunner against N.C. State. He also had 11 rebounds, two assists, two blocks and a steal.
Deacon to watch: Guard Hunter Sallis (No. 23).
Now, talk about a hot-hand pick.
Using his coach’s own term from Wednesday night: Sallis is on a heater. He has scored at least 20 points in six straight games — the longest previous stretch of his career was three games with 20-plus.
The crescendo was Wednesday’s 30-point game against Stanford, in which 18 of those points came the last 11½ minutes of a tight game.
His numbers over the last six games: 24.7 points per game, 56-for-99 shooting (56.6%), 12-for-27 on 3-pointers (44.4%), 20-for-21 at the free-throw line (95.2%), 5.0 rebounds per game, 18 assists and 11 turnovers, seven steals and four blocks.
It begs the question: How much of a heater does he stay on against VT?
What’s on deck: Wake Forest comes out of this one with a pivotal, Tobacco Road-heavy week.
The Deacons play host to both UNC (on Tuesday) and Duke (on Saturday). The Tar Heels enter the weekend with the same 5-1 ACC record as the Deacons and have been teetering on entering the NCAA tournament bubble conversation, though appear to be on the right side of it. Duke is one of the best teams in the country, with KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency ranks both in the top five.
VT goes to Georgia Tech on Wednesday night.
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 68-65.
Injury report: Well, this is the one.
Wake Forest anticipates having Omaha Biliew back for this game. The sophomore forward has missed the last 14 games as he underwent foot surgery because of an aggravation to a previous injury — one that caused him to miss time in the summer and delayed his preseason development.
Biliew returning would be a boost to Wake’s defensive versatility and to its overall athleticism.
Hammond has missed VT’s last three games. Young said after Wednesday night’s game that Hammond is expected back (and that he’d start) Saturday’s game, though; he started three games before exiting with a foot injury and had an eight-assist game against Miami.
What a Wake Forest loss looks like: It’d probably mean VT stays hot from behind the 3-point line.
The Hokies have made 50% of their 3s in each of the last two games. Granted, last weekend that was just 4-for-8 at California; but the 11-for-22 against N.C. State on Wednesday night was one of their best performances of the season.
If VT hits 3s like that again and Wake Forest maintains the offensive rhythm it’s had for the past four games, this could turn into a high-scoring affair.
What a Wake Forest win looks like: Biliew comes back and puts up a double-double?
That’s a little much, given he’ll be on a minutes restriction.
The sophomore forward could give Wake Forest a boost, though. The Deacons have been a strong defensive team all season and are on the eve of getting back their most-versatile interior defender.
Asking Sallis to keep pouring in points late might not be sustainable but it’s certainly been a good formula for the last few games. If he gets going in the final stages of another game, you’ll feel even better about the Deacons pulling out their third ACC road win of the year.