Advertisement
Published Oct 11, 2024
Preview: No. 10 Clemson at Wake Forest
circle avatar
Conor O'Neill  •  DeaconsIllustrated
Publisher
Twitter
@ConorONeill_DI

Deacons take next swing at scoring a win over Tigers; Plus a preview of Saturday’s Clemson-Wake Forest game

WINSTON-SALEM – You know the streaks by now and if you don’t, you’re surely aware on some level that it’s been a while since Wake Forest beat Clemson, and it’s been a lot longer since the Deacons beat a top-10 team.

George W. Bush was the President when Wake Forest last beat Clemson, in 2008. The No. 1 song in the U.S. was “Whatever You Like” by T.I.; the No. 1 movie was something called “Beverly Hills Chihuahua.”

You have to go back to the office of Harry S. Truman as President for the last time Wake Forest notched a top-10 win — that was a 1946 win over No. 4 Tennessee. The No. 1 song back then was “Rumors Are Flying” by Frankie Carle and his orchestra; Wake’s win over the Vols was two months before the theatrical release of “It’s a Wonderful Life.”

Fifteen straight losses to Clemson, 65 to top-10 teams — both on the line when Wake Forest plays host to Clemson on Saturday.

“Our players get excited to play them,” coach Dave Clawson said of his team matching up against the Tigers. “They’re a top-10 program, they’re a national program. Our players respect them.

“We look forward to the challenge. We know how good they are and our players get excited.”

Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Saturday’s game:

Time: Noon o’clock.

Location: The venue formerly known as Groves Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Announcers: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Dusty Dvoracek (analyst) and Taylor McGregor (sidelines).

Radio link: Listen to the crew that knows Wake Forest best.

Forecast: Low-70s, sunny, winds around 5 mph at kickoff; mid-70s and still sunny by the end of the game.

Series; last meeting: Clemson leads 71-17-1; Clemson won 17-12 last season and has won 15 straight meetings.

Records: Clemson 4-1, 3-0 ACC; Wake Forest 2-3, 1-1.

Stat to watch: 7.78.

Clemson’s average yards per play is 7.12, which is 15th in the country. But the number above is Clemson’s yards per play if you remove the opener against Georgia, and it’d rank fifth in the country.

Obviously, the Georgia game happened; we’re not erasing it from the stat book.

But the conversation about whether Wake’s defense is more comparable to Georgia or the other four teams Clemson has moved the ball against — Appalachian State, N.C. State, Stanford and Florida State — is a short one.

“We’ll run the exact same stuff. We’ll line (up) our 330-pound defensive tackles and overwhelm their guards,” Clawson said.

That was dripping with sarcasm, if not already made clear by Wake Forest listing one defensive tackle (Bryce Ganious) at 300 pounds and the rest under it.

Clemson has rushed for at least 250 yards in three of its last four games, each of those leading to offensive outputs of at least 500 yards. The Tigers had 46 rushing yards against Georgia.

Georgia did things against Clemson’s offense that can’t be replicated.

“Georgia is able to do things that most people can’t because of their personnel,” Clawson said, shifting into actual discussion. “We watch every game and we say, ‘What worked, what gave them problems?’ And part of our breakdown is, ‘Is it what they did or who they did it with?’

“They’ve got five O-linemen, part of game-planning is how do you try to get Jasheen (Davis) matched up? Who do you try to get him lined up against on a critical down? I don’t think Georgia worries about that.”

Matchup to watch: Clemson’s receivers vs. Wake’s secondary.

As noted in the five things to know story, Clemson’s receiver corps looks more explosive than it’s been in years past. That doesn’t mean the Tigers are back to churning out first-rounders again — it just means they’re past the point of relying on players who can’t start for middling power-conference teams.

Wake’s defensive backs were better against N.C. State than they’d been in the previous three games, even if the stats don’t immediately show it.

Giving up 314 passing yards to N.C. State — 272 to a freshman QB — doesn’t look great. Considering the Wolfpack needed 47 throws to get there and averaged 6.7 yards per pass, though, it looks better. And considering the per-attempt averages of Virginia (7.8), Ole Miss (11.1) and Louisiana (8.9), you get a clearer picture of Wake’s progress in the secondary.

The Deacons need the progress to continue if they’re going to have any hope of containing Clemson’s offense.

Quote of the week: “Honestly for me, it’s kind of like that really exciting feeling right after the game and then whenever we change and get ready to head on back, we leave the game and my mind kind of goes into, ‘Who do we play next?’

“It’s not necessarily a 24-hour rule with me. It’s about 2 hours or so, and then it’s like, ‘Who do we play next.’” – Wake Forest offensive lineman Nick Sharpe

Opposing offensive player to watch: Running back Phil Mafah (No. 7).

Mafah had a spot start in each of his first two seasons, 2021 and ’22, and was mostly Will Shipley’s backup for the past three seasons. But with Shipley missing a November game against Notre Dame last year, Mafah stepped into the full-time role as Clemson’s running back.

Starting with his 186-yard breakout game against the Irish, Mafah’s stats across 10 games as the Tigers’ featured back: 174 carries, 1,022 yards, nine touchdowns.

He is a 6-1, 230-pound specimen of a running back, with both power to break tackles and speed to break into the open field. Mafah has 496 yards this season and 285 of those have come after contact; he has forced 14 missed tackles; and has seven runs of at least 15 yards.

Opposing defensive player to watch: Linebacker Barrett Carter (No. 0).

This was going to be Clemson’s other No. 7, safety Khalil Barnes, a former Wake Forest commit. But he’s not had the best of seasons so far.

Instead, we’ll go with another 6-1, 230-pound freak of an athlete.

Carter had eight QB pressures despite only being a pass-rusher 23 times this season. He had a rough game against Georgia in the opener — who didn’t? — with only three tackles and two misses; since then, Carter has 25 tackles and one whiff.

Every once in a while, Clemson will line up Carter as an edge rusher. But he’s more likely to be in the middle of the defense, and that’s the area of the field that will determine how much success Wake’s offense will have moving the ball against the Tigers.

Young Deacon to watch: Wide receiver Micah Mays Jr. (No. 18).

The ramp-up was worth the wait.

The redshirt freshman played 97 snaps in Wake’s first four games and it wasn’t until the fifth game, last weekend, that he had the first catch of his career.

That was a short completion on Wake’s opening drive, and he followed it up with catches of 11 and 15 yards on the same drive later in the first half. The big play was a 17-yard catch-and-run that set up Demond Claiborne’s game-winning touchdown.

Equipped with confidence now, look for Mays to keep making plays.

“We were down some guys, so I know it was me and him out there on the outside,” wide receiver Horatio Fields said of Mays and himself. “I know for a fact if I keep myself up and keep him up, cheer him on, make sure he knows that I got him, that he got me, I was very proud of Micah.

“I was happy for him — I was probably a little more happy for him than he was.”

Don’t forget about: How close the Deacons have come against Clemson.

Right, so, it’s not likely that you’ve forgotten the double-overtime loss two years ago. Or that last season’s game was a 17-12 slog.

What you shouldn’t forget, though, is what those games can do for Wake’s confidence when playing Clemson.

For years, when Clemson was a perennial national championship contender, this game felt like Wake Forest would’ve been better off resting any important players who weren’t at 100%. It always seemed like a beatdown waiting to happen.

These last two meetings should have given current Deacons plenty of confidence that they can play with Clemson.

What a Wake Forest loss looks like: It’s hard to see a Wake Forest loss being a low-scoring game.

Clemson’s offense appears as explosive as it’s been since Trevor Lawrence was its quarterback. Wake’s defense showed improvement last weekend; the task becomes a lot tougher this weekend.

If Wake’s offense struggles to sustain drives and/or commits turnovers — it’s easy to forget the early second-half turnovers against the Wolfpack because no points were scored off them, but those can’t become a habit for Hank Bachmeier — this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

What a Wake Forest win looks like: Some elements of last weekend’s win at N.C. State can be applied here.

Wake Forest has to play some ball-control offense against Clemson. The Deacons didn’t do a lot of that against N.C. State for the first three quarters, but won the game by having their two longest drives in that final frame.

Winning the turnover battle and being less penalized than Clemson would go a long way toward scoring an upset, too.

Defensively, a Wake Forest win would have to include bottling up Mafah. He’s one of the ACC’s running backs who’s bound to get his yards through sheer volume and force; bottling him up means holding him under 5 yards per carry (or, at least under 6).

It stacks up as a tough-yet-not-impossible task on each side of the ball for Wake Forest.

Advertisement
Advertisement