Preview: N.C. State at Wake Forest

In a road game, Steve Forbes wanted to see how much his team had matured.

It was true last month when Wake Forest traveled to N.C. State. The Deacons failed that test, as you’re probably aware, losing by seven after leading by 10 at halftime.

And it was true Tuesday night, when Wake Forest took a 26-point lead to the locker room. Forbes wanted to see the Deacons eschew human nature and win the second half, which they did, notching a second straight 29-point win.

“It’s human nature when you're up by that much to relax,” Forbes said in Atlanta. “I challenged our team at halftime to grow up, finish the game and play like a championship level team.”

That’s the kind of momentum Wake Forest carries into Saturday’s rematch with the Wolfpack.

The first meeting had all sorts of fireworks, from N.C. State coach Kevin Keatts ejected in the first half to the skirmish toward the end of the game that resulted in Hunter Sallis and N.C. State’s Ben Middlebrooks and Mohamed Diarra’s ejections, to finally DJ Horne’s two-finger salute to official Jeb Hartness in the closing seconds.

Wake Forest has positioned itself to build an NCAA tournament résumé and N.C. State has lost four of six since beating the Deacons, including a couple of home losses to middle-of-the-pack Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Saturday’s game has the makings of two teams that might not be completely desperate, but should be everything up to that level.

In such games, it’s the mature team that comes out happy.

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Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

Time: 4 p.m.

Location: Joel Coliseum.

TV: ACC Network.

Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play) and Dan Bonner (analyst).

Series; last meeting: N.C. State leads 149-108; N.C. State won 83-76 on Jan. 16 in Raleigh.

Records: N.C. State 15-8, 7-5 ACC; Wake Forest 15-7, 7-4.

Stat to watch: 17.

That’s how many turnovers Wake Forest committed in the first game against N.C. State.

You know, if you needed a reminder. More are coming.

The Deacons were up 10 at halftime before what Forbes called the worst half they’ve played in the past three seasons. Wake Forest was “discombobulated” offensively, and the most consequential evidence was the turnover number.

Turnovers had been an issue in Wake’s two previous games, the loss at Florida State and 19-point win over Virginia. The maturity to correct it wasn’t there against N.C. State’s defense, which actually sagged out of the full-court pressure in the first half and focused more on pressuring and trapping in the halfcourt in the second half.

So, that’s what you’ll have to watch for. Wake Forest committed nine turnovers in the first half and was up 10 because when it did handle the pressure, the Deacons mostly got whatever shot they wanted. Along with eight turnovers in the second half of that game, N.C. State took the Deacons out of that comfort zone.

Matchup to watch: N.C. State’s DJ Horne (No. 0) vs. Wake’s Hunter Sallis (No. 23) or Cameron Hildreth (No. 2).

Instead of revisiting every part of Wake’s loss at N.C. State last month, we’ll throw in a casual mention of Horne having 21 points in that game and torching Wake’s drop coverage of ball screens from the mid-range.

And then we’ll get to Horne scoring 24, 26 and 25 points in N.C. State’s last three games.

The Raleigh native who played at Illinois State and Arizona State before coming home has been on fire lately. Horne has made 12 of 25 3-pointers over this stretch and gone 7-for-8, 10-for-11 and 4-for-5 at the free-throw line; he’d only taken at least five free throws once in the first 20 games of the season, and that was six in an overtime game.

The Wolfpack has started Alex O’Connell in its last three games and if that continues, it figures that’s where Kevin Miller’s defensive assignment will be.

That will leave either Sallis or Hildreth on Horne. Per usual, it’s likely both wind up guarding Horne at certain points of this game. The safe bet would be Sallis on Horne, given he has a little more length and has typically been Wake’s pick to guard the opponent’s best guard.

Wolf to watch: Center DJ Burns Jr. (No. 30).

Now, this one has *nothing* to do with these teams’ previous encounter. Burns had 10 points, two rebounds and three turnovers, playing only 19 minutes because of an illness.

The selection here has *everything* to do with Burns finding a groove earlier this week against Pittsburgh.

On Wednesday night, the 6-9, 275-pounder had a season-high 19 points in the Wolfpack’s three-point loss at home. He also got 16 shots, marking the fifth time in the last 16 games that Burns has attempted more than 10 shots. By comparison, he had 12 such games in the Wolfpack’s last 20 games a season ago.

Part of this was Pitt’s own doing. The Panthers spent most of Wednesday night’s game trying to guard Burns without doubling, which didn’t go well. That’s unlikely to be the case for Wake Forest, as the Deacons sent double teams at Burns and got deflections a month ago.

Deacon to watch: Forward Andrew Carr (No. 11).

Twofold reasoning with Carr here.

One, he had a career-high 28 points when these teams played last month.

And he’s coming off a 13-point, 10-rebound game against Georgia Tech.

Carr has been Mr. Steady for the Deacons over the past seven games, which came after a three-game stretch in which he scored a total of 14 points. He’s averaging 15.9 points over the last month, with two double-doubles and the career performance against the Wolfpack in the first meeting.

The 6-10, 220-pounder is a matchup problem for the Wolfpack because A. it starts a small lineup and B. it doesn’t have much rim protection. Middlebrooks (6-10, 240) is more often used as the replacement for Burns, and Diarra (6-10, 215) has 11 blocks this season, three of them coming in the opener against The Citadel.

All things being equal, this lines up as another game in which Carr should and will be attacking the rim.

What’s on deck: It’s another quick turnaround and a trip down Tobacco Road for the Deacons.

Wake Forest goes to Duke on Monday night for its next shot at a Quad-1 win. You know the history — Wake Forest hasn’t won at Cameron Indoor Stadium since Tim Duncan’s senior year. The Deacons lost their other Monday night game this season, leading at UNC by one and losing by 21.

N.C. State doesn’t have a mid-week game and heads to Clemson next weekend. That’s a bit ominous; ACC teams are 1-9 since the January start of league play when coming out of their “off” dates.

KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 79-70.

Deacons Illustrated prognosis: I tend to see this game as a proving ground.

No, it’s not a Quad-1 game for the Deacons. We keep talking about those because they hold such value for NCAA tournament résumés and because Wake Forest doesn’t have a Quad-1 win (though, if Virginia and Florida move into the top 30, those will become Quad-1s).

The proving part of this has to do with the Deacons proving they can pile up some wins and momentum. There is, as Forbes put it after the Syracuse, a lot of basketball left and if his team can keep stacking up wins, things will work out in Wake’s favor come Selection Sunday.

Waxing teams in back-to-back games by 29 is a heck of a roll. As a wise (and fictional) coach once said (modified), “Wake Forest won a game last week. It won one earlier this week. If it wins this one, that’s called a ‘winning streak.’ It has happened before.”