Deacons set to close out regular season with farewell to trio of seniors
There doesn’t have to be much sugarcoating the disappointment of how Wake Forest’s season is playing out down the stretch.
The Deacons’ season isn’t over. Maybe the right wins next week in the ACC tournament would put Wake Forest back on the NCAA tournament bubble. Or there’s the approach from “Major League,” when Jake Taylor suggests there’s only one thing left to do …
As unlikely as that may seem, Wake Forest will take its shot next week.
For now, though, there’s a feeling and hope that some of those things can be set aside for the Deacons to celebrate Senior Day with Saturday’s home finale against Georgia Tech.
“We’re going to have three really good players, three great people, that will be graduating,” Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said after Monday night’s loss at Duke.
Cameron Hildreth is a rare breed in college basketball — a senior who has never transferred. Hunter Sallis was a first-team All-ACC selection last season and could be again this year. Efton Reid III has anchored Wake’s defense for the past two seasons.
Walk-ons Kevin Dunn and RJ Kennah will also be honored in a pre-game ceremony.
“I hope everybody will come out,” Forbes said. “I know they’re going to be discouraged after this (loss to Duke) tonight, I don’t blame them. But come out one more time … and send a bunch of really good kids off.”
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:
Time: 2:15 p.m.
Location: Joel Coliseum.
TV: The CW.
Announcers: “There’s a deep drive to left by Castellanos” (play-by-play), and Mike Gminski (analyst).
Series; last meeting: Georgia Tech leads 47-43; GT won in Winston-Salem, 70-69, getting a game-winning bucket in the final seconds from Baye Ndongo and serving up a deflating home loss that went a long way toward popping the Deacons’ bubble.
Records: GT 16-14, 10-9 ACC; Wake Forest 20-10, 12-7.
Stat to watch: 30%.
It’s a baseline number that you’ll have to keep in mind.
GT has had an offensive rebound percentage of at least 30% in six straight games, per KenPom. Five of those six have been wins, and the loss was actually the lowest offensive rebound rate of that stretch (30% against Boston College).
The Yellow Jackets dominated undermanned and last-place Miami on Tuesday night, rebounding 56.7% of their misses. That led to 22 second-chance points in GT’s 15-point win.
Wake Forest is coming off a game in which it gave up a season-worst 46.1% offensive rebound rate.
Duke had 18 offensive rebounds that were converted into 22 second-chance points on Monday night. It wasn’t the sole reason for a 33-point blowout loss, but it was one of the main factors.
It’s an aspect Wake Forest will have to have fixed for this game.
Matchup to watch: GT’s Duncan Powell (No. 31) vs. a TBD Wake Forest defender.
Powell is kind of a hot-hand pick, as he has 65 points across GT’s last three games and has made 10 of 20 3-pointers in this stretch (6-for-10 against Pittsburgh, and then 2-for-5 in the other two games).
And it’s a little bit of a home-cooking selection — Powell is from Dallas but spent a freshman season at N.C. A&T, was at Sacramento State last season, and now is back on the East Coast.
Most important, though, is how Wake Forest handles a size mismatch.
Powell is 6-8, 235 and spends some time at the 3-spot for GT. When the Yellow Jackets put Baye Ndongo (6-9, 240) and Ibrahim Souare (6-9, 225) on the court with Powell, there’s bound to be a size advantage somewhere, as that’s a lot of length and athleticism.
Hildreth is the likely matchup against Powell. Wake’s senior guard is 6-4, 195 and has typically been the pick to match up against bigger, physical players for most of the last three seasons.
But this is also where freshman Juke Harris, at 6-7, 200, can play a major role. His length creates problems on the perimeter and the Deacons could wind up needing big minutes from him in this game.
Yellow Jacket to watch: Center Baye Ndongo (No. 11).
The sophomore big man had 20 points against North Texas in GT’s second game of the season.
It wasn’t until Feb. 15 that Ndongo had his second 20-point game of the season, but he’s picked an advantageous time to come on strong.
Ndongo scored 26 against California in an OT win on Feb. 15, making 11 of 14 shots and grabbing 13 rebounds (eight of them offensive). He’s coming into Saturday’s game on back-to-back 20-plus games, putting up 29 points and 17 rebounds against N.C. State last weekend and a calmer 22-point, eight-rebound game against Miami this week.
The Senegalese forward is a monster in the pick-and-roll with point guard Naithan George.
Deacons to watch: The senior trio.
Keep things simple, here.
We know Hildreth and Sallis have no more scheduled home games; Reid’s status is cloudier, addressed within this thread.
Hildreth is a 1,000-point scorer for the Deacons; Sallis, despite this being his second season in the program, has scored more than 1,000 points at Wake Forest, too. Reid, as mentioned above, has been a primary reason Wake’s defense is improved this season and was better last season after he escaped NCAA purgatory.
What’s on deck: Both of these teams are headed to Charlotte for the ACC tournament.
Wake Forest can still land the 4-seed and punch a double-bye to the quarterfinal round. That would require a win, plus UNC and SMU losses to Duke and Florida State, respectively.
The worst seed the Deacons could have is No. 6. They’re currently sixth in the standings and Stanford is one game behind, but Wake Forest beat the Cardinal twice, so it holds the head-to-head advantage.
Georgia Tech will be the No. 7 or 8 seed next week. If the Yellow Jackets win and move into a tie with Stanford, they’d also have a head-to-head advantage over the Cardinal.
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest wins 73-67.
Injury report: Reid has been playing through a hand/thumb injury, which Forbes addressed after the game at Duke.
“He’s playing hurt, man. He’s got a hand (injury), so sometimes he can’t get both hands on it and they’re in there sumo-wrestling,” Forbes said.
Reid hasn’t missed a game because of it and is unlikely to miss this one.
GT or perhaps Louisville has had the worst injury luck of any ACC team. Kowacie Reeves only played in the first six games; Javian McCollum missed four games between November and December, returned, and has missed the last eight; the Yellow Jackets have had games with only 7-8 available scholarship players.
What a Wake Forest loss looks like: Those offensive rebounding numbers for GT are concerning.
Finishing possessions with defensive rebounds has been a problem for Wake Forest this season, in spite of being a top-50 defensive team. Ndongo is one of the best offensive rebounders in the ACC and could dominate this game in both pick-and-rolls with George or on the glass.
A loss by the Deacons would also feature more of the same long-range shooting woes. They made six of them at Duke, but two came in the final minutes when the outcome had long been decided.
What a Wake Forest win looks like: A strong Senior Day sendoff.
Beyond the numbers of what has to happen for Wake Forest to win, the Deacons need their senior guards to author one more home win with clutch plays down the stretch.
Given GT has surged into the top half of the league standings and Wake Forest doesn’t blow teams out, this feels bound to be a tight game and close finish. That’s going to put the ball in the hands of Hildreth and Sallis often.
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